How gold and BTC will perform this week depends on two important pieces of data: the non-farm employment data on Wednesday and the CPI price index on Friday.
However, everyone’s attention is basically locked on the US non-farm payrolls, why?
Because the CPI has been stagnant for four months, this time it is unlikely to cause any big waves.
So the core focus has shifted to the non-farm payrolls on Wednesday night; everyone is particularly nervous about this number.
The reason is quite simple, the pile of employment-related data released last week was all not very good, so will the official exam report this time also fall short?
At this critical moment, an interesting thing happened: White House economic advisor Hassett came out early to say that he expects the job market to weaken.
This is quite straightforward; it means that the data might not look very good. He even used the word 'panic,' but everyone shouldn't panic too much. Just think about it: if the higher-ups are using the word 'panic' to calm the market, the data is probably really a bit concerning.
This is interesting; the data hasn't been released yet, but people in the core circle are already leaking information, and the market isn't foolish—it reacted immediately.
Today, the US dollar index dropped nearly 1%. This is not a small movement; more crucially, the large stone that had been pressing on the market seems to have been moved away.
Do you all remember why gold and BTC suddenly experienced an epic crash before? A significant reason is that the new chairman of the Federal Reserve nominated Waller.
The market is afraid that once he takes office, he'll immediately start reducing the balance sheet and tighten liquidity.
As a result, yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin came out to counter this, saying that even if Waller really takes office, the Federal Reserve won't immediately change direction; the balance sheet reduction will take at least a year of observation, meaning that the concern everyone has in the short term is basically unlikely to happen.
You see, when these two events overlap, the biggest concern about balance sheet reduction is lifted, and with the non-farm data likely to disappoint, the dollar just couldn't hold up and dropped dramatically.
And when the dollar falls, everyone understands that opportunities for gold and BTC arise.
So our current focus is very clear—let's see how much gold and BTC can rise, especially whether gold can surge past the key position of 5100 USD.
If it can stabilize, brothers, from a technical perspective, the imagination space will open up.
Even the historical high of 5500 USD is something to look forward to touching.
BTC is expected to continue rebounding this week to 73000-75000, or even higher.
But if it can't push up, then the market will probably return to a choppy grind or even a second bottom test. Let's wait and see.
