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$AUD /USD: RBA weighs stagflation risks – Commerzbank
Commerzbank economists Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note $AUD /USD slipped to 0.6950 as Australia faces a stagflationary dilemma. Pre-war core inflation held at 3.3% while a Middle East energy shock could push prices higher. With confidence and services PMIs weakening, markets still price a 54% chance of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike in May.
RBA caught between inflation and growth
"AUD/USD fell 50 pips to 0.6950. The AUD's resilience is partly due to lingering hawkish bets as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) confronts a severe stagflationary dilemma."
While Australia's pre-war February core inflation was unchanged at 3.3%, the unfolding Middle East energy shock threatens to steepen the inflation trajectory in the coming months."
"On the other hand, consumer confidence already plunged to record lows while services PMIs flipped into contraction."
"The RBA will carefully weigh recession risks against the need to contain price spillovers from surging fuel costs, keeping markets pricing a 54% probability of a rate hike in May."
#AUDUSD
#AustralianMarkets
#trading
#MarketAnalysis
Commerzbank economists Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note $AUD /USD slipped to 0.6950 as Australia faces a stagflationary dilemma. Pre-war core inflation held at 3.3% while a Middle East energy shock could push prices higher. With confidence and services PMIs weakening, markets still price a 54% chance of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike in May.
RBA caught between inflation and growth
"AUD/USD fell 50 pips to 0.6950. The AUD's resilience is partly due to lingering hawkish bets as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) confronts a severe stagflationary dilemma."
While Australia's pre-war February core inflation was unchanged at 3.3%, the unfolding Middle East energy shock threatens to steepen the inflation trajectory in the coming months."
"On the other hand, consumer confidence already plunged to record lows while services PMIs flipped into contraction."
"The RBA will carefully weigh recession risks against the need to contain price spillovers from surging fuel costs, keeping markets pricing a 54% probability of a rate hike in May."
#AUDUSD
#AustralianMarkets
#trading
#MarketAnalysis
Australian Dollar Defies Soft CPI Data: AUD/USD Holds Firm At 0.7000 Amid Market Consolidation 🚨
The Australian Dollar showed remarkable resilience today as softer-than-expected February CPI data failed to trigger a major sell-off. Headline CPI rose just 3.7% year-on-year (down from 3.8%), with trimmed mean inflation holding steady. Despite the cooling print, **AUD/USD** clung tightly to the key **0.7000** psychological level, trading in a narrow consolidation range between 0.6980–0.7020.
Traders appear to be looking through the softer inflation numbers, focusing instead on persistent underlying pressures and potential upside risks from rising energy costs amid global tensions. The RBA’s hawkish stance continues to provide a floor for the Aussie, while broader USD weakness and risk appetite help limit downside.
Technically, AUD/USD remains in a tight squeeze. A decisive break above 0.7050 could open the door toward 0.7100–0.7120, while a drop below 0.6980 might test 0.6910 support. Volume remains moderate as markets await further clarity on global growth and commodity prices — key drivers for the commodity-linked AUD.
Overall, the pair’s ability to defend 0.7000 despite dovish CPI signals highlights underlying strength. Expect continued range-bound action in the near term with volatility spikes possible on any fresh geopolitical or Fed-related headlines.
👉CPI & Inflation Context Visuals:👉
👉AUD Strength & Symbol Visuals:👉#dollar #AUDUSD
Traders appear to be looking through the softer inflation numbers, focusing instead on persistent underlying pressures and potential upside risks from rising energy costs amid global tensions. The RBA’s hawkish stance continues to provide a floor for the Aussie, while broader USD weakness and risk appetite help limit downside.
Technically, AUD/USD remains in a tight squeeze. A decisive break above 0.7050 could open the door toward 0.7100–0.7120, while a drop below 0.6980 might test 0.6910 support. Volume remains moderate as markets await further clarity on global growth and commodity prices — key drivers for the commodity-linked AUD.
Overall, the pair’s ability to defend 0.7000 despite dovish CPI signals highlights underlying strength. Expect continued range-bound action in the near term with volatility spikes possible on any fresh geopolitical or Fed-related headlines.
👉CPI & Inflation Context Visuals:👉
👉AUD Strength & Symbol Visuals:👉#dollar #AUDUSD
Forex Trade AUD/USD Sell (5M Timeframe)
1H market structure is strongly bearish. Price gave a pullback and then broke down on the 5M chart, forming a lower high and confirming continuation.
Entered after breakout retest.
Entry: 0.64835
SL: 0.64905
TP: 0.64650
Clean trend-following setup. 📉💹
#AUDUSD #Forex #SellSetup #Breakout #priceaction #TrendTrading #ForexAnalysis #MTF #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingSetup #BinanceSquare
How gold and BTC will perform this week depends on two important pieces of data.
How gold and BTC will perform this week depends on two important pieces of data: the non-farm employment data on Wednesday and the CPI price index on Friday.
However, everyone’s attention is basically locked on the US non-farm payrolls, why?
Because the CPI has been stagnant for four months, this time it is unlikely to cause any big waves.
So the core focus has shifted to the non-farm payrolls on Wednesday night; everyone is particularly nervous about this number.
The reason is quite simple, the pile of employment-related data released last week was all not very good, so will the official exam report this time also fall short?
However, everyone’s attention is basically locked on the US non-farm payrolls, why?
Because the CPI has been stagnant for four months, this time it is unlikely to cause any big waves.
So the core focus has shifted to the non-farm payrolls on Wednesday night; everyone is particularly nervous about this number.
The reason is quite simple, the pile of employment-related data released last week was all not very good, so will the official exam report this time also fall short?
#AUDUSD
WILL GROW|LONG
AUDCAD has tapped into a clean discount demand zone after a strong bullish displacement. Price is holding structure with buy-side liquidity resting above recent highs, favoring continuation toward the premium imbalance and next liquidity pool. Time Frame 5H.
WILL GROW|LONG
AUDCAD has tapped into a clean discount demand zone after a strong bullish displacement. Price is holding structure with buy-side liquidity resting above recent highs, favoring continuation toward the premium imbalance and next liquidity pool. Time Frame 5H.
AUDUSD stretches to a new high for 2026. Can the buyers keep the momentum going?
The AUDUSD has pushed to a new high for 2026, breaking above the February peak at 0.7146 and reaching a session high of 0.7155. However, after the breakout, the price has rotated back lower and is now trading just below that prior high, creating the risk of a failed breakout if buyers cannot maintain momentum.
For now, the technical picture still favors the buyers as long as the pair can hold above the recent swing levels at 0.7135 and 0.7121. Those levels represent prior resistance that should now act as support. Staying above them keeps the bullish bias intact, while a move below would likely disappoint buyers and could trigger a shift in sentiment, with former buyers turning into sellers.
Fundamentals are also helping support the upside in the pair. The broader risk tone in markets is more positive, with U.S. stocks extending gains after yesterday’s late-session reversal higher. The Nasdaq is up about 141 points (0.62%), while the S&P 500 and Dow are also trading higher, reinforcing the risk-on backdrop that tends to benefit the Australian dollar.
At the same time, U.S. yields are moving lower, which is also providing a tailwind for AUDUSD. The 10-year yield is down about 2.1 basis points to 4.112%, well off yesterday’s high of 4.214%. Lower yields typically weigh on the U.S. dollar and can help support higher-beta currencies like the Aussie.
The RBA meets next week. The bottom line for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is that policy is likely to remain tight with a slight bias toward additional tightening, but the central bank is not committed to a fixed path. After the February rate hike, policymakers signaled that inflation risks remain elevated and progress toward the 2–3% target is not yet secure, meaning further tightening cannot be ruled out.
Adam just posted with more reasons. You can read his post HERE$BTC $ETH $BNB #AUDUSD
The AUDUSD has pushed to a new high for 2026, breaking above the February peak at 0.7146 and reaching a session high of 0.7155. However, after the breakout, the price has rotated back lower and is now trading just below that prior high, creating the risk of a failed breakout if buyers cannot maintain momentum.
For now, the technical picture still favors the buyers as long as the pair can hold above the recent swing levels at 0.7135 and 0.7121. Those levels represent prior resistance that should now act as support. Staying above them keeps the bullish bias intact, while a move below would likely disappoint buyers and could trigger a shift in sentiment, with former buyers turning into sellers.
Fundamentals are also helping support the upside in the pair. The broader risk tone in markets is more positive, with U.S. stocks extending gains after yesterday’s late-session reversal higher. The Nasdaq is up about 141 points (0.62%), while the S&P 500 and Dow are also trading higher, reinforcing the risk-on backdrop that tends to benefit the Australian dollar.
At the same time, U.S. yields are moving lower, which is also providing a tailwind for AUDUSD. The 10-year yield is down about 2.1 basis points to 4.112%, well off yesterday’s high of 4.214%. Lower yields typically weigh on the U.S. dollar and can help support higher-beta currencies like the Aussie.
The RBA meets next week. The bottom line for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is that policy is likely to remain tight with a slight bias toward additional tightening, but the central bank is not committed to a fixed path. After the February rate hike, policymakers signaled that inflation risks remain elevated and progress toward the 2–3% target is not yet secure, meaning further tightening cannot be ruled out.
Adam just posted with more reasons. You can read his post HERE$BTC $ETH $BNB #AUDUSD
#AUDUSD
For those interested in forex trading#Australian_dollar🇦🇺/🇺🇸 Wave view of the currency pair within the 1-hour time frame
🚀 Correction then launch
After the completion of the impulse wave representing wave (1)/(A), which witnessed a noticeable rise, the price is currently moving in a corrective phase that may take the form of a correction that may reach the areas of 50-61.8%.
👈 On this basis, we expect
- The corrective wave is ideally formed in one of the zigzag patterns
- The pair reaches the levels of 0.61890 - 0.61755 of the length of the upward wave.
💡 Important notes
- Determining the pattern that will form is an essential step to confirm the trend.
- The key level of the pattern represents a milestone: - Breaking it will qualify the price to reach a new high above the 0.62926 level as a lower target
For those interested in forex trading#Australian_dollar🇦🇺/🇺🇸 Wave view of the currency pair within the 1-hour time frame
🚀 Correction then launch
After the completion of the impulse wave representing wave (1)/(A), which witnessed a noticeable rise, the price is currently moving in a corrective phase that may take the form of a correction that may reach the areas of 50-61.8%.
👈 On this basis, we expect
- The corrective wave is ideally formed in one of the zigzag patterns
- The pair reaches the levels of 0.61890 - 0.61755 of the length of the upward wave.
💡 Important notes
- Determining the pattern that will form is an essential step to confirm the trend.
- The key level of the pattern represents a milestone: - Breaking it will qualify the price to reach a new high above the 0.62926 level as a lower target
📉 Yesterday, AUD/USD saw a slight drop of 0.30%. Let's keep an eye on the next support level! 💱✨
#dailyanalysis #AUDUSD
#dailyanalysis #AUDUSD
🚀 The Australian dollar may strengthen! $DUSK
As the Federal Reserve (Fed) may lower interest rates 💸, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may maintain rates or even raise them 📈, the AUD/USD exchange rate is expected to rise! 💹 $FRAX
📊 The widening interest rate differential typically boosts the Australian dollar, and the market is closely watching the next central bank actions. $RIVER
🔗 Source: ShareCafe / AFR (afr.com)
#外汇 #AUDUSD #利率差 #澳元 #币安资讯 💰💱
As the Federal Reserve (Fed) may lower interest rates 💸, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may maintain rates or even raise them 📈, the AUD/USD exchange rate is expected to rise! 💹 $FRAX
📊 The widening interest rate differential typically boosts the Australian dollar, and the market is closely watching the next central bank actions. $RIVER
🔗 Source: ShareCafe / AFR (afr.com)
#外汇 #AUDUSD #利率差 #澳元 #币安资讯 💰💱
*Today's Trading Analysis (January 2, 2025)*
#USOIL is stabilizing ⚖️. Watch for support at 71.5 and resistance at 75.6. A break below 69.6 could signal further decline 🔻.
#AUDUSD is fluctuating at lower levels. Watch for resistance at 0.624 and support at 0.617. A break above 0.628 could signal an uptrend
#USOIL is stabilizing ⚖️. Watch for support at 71.5 and resistance at 75.6. A break below 69.6 could signal further decline 🔻.
#AUDUSD is fluctuating at lower levels. Watch for resistance at 0.624 and support at 0.617. A break above 0.628 could signal an uptrend
AUD/USD 💱 might see some downside movement 📉. Let’s wait and watch! 👀📊
#audusd #BinanceTalks #dailyanalysis
#audusd #BinanceTalks #dailyanalysis
#AUDUSD 4H Outlook!
AUDUSD has shown a clear Break of Structure (BOS) to the upside, confirming bullish momentum after breakout from the previous consolidation zone.
Price is now approaching the 4H POI (Premium Zone) near 0.6630–0.6660, which aligns with previous supply and potential short-term rejection area.
If bearish reaction forms here, a corrective pullback toward 0.6560–0.6530 demand zone is expected before continuation of the uptrend.
Best Sell Zone: 0.6630–0.6660
Target: 0.6560
SL: Above 0.6680
Watch for bearish confirmation inside the POI before entering the short.
#forexsignals
AUDUSD has shown a clear Break of Structure (BOS) to the upside, confirming bullish momentum after breakout from the previous consolidation zone.
Price is now approaching the 4H POI (Premium Zone) near 0.6630–0.6660, which aligns with previous supply and potential short-term rejection area.
If bearish reaction forms here, a corrective pullback toward 0.6560–0.6530 demand zone is expected before continuation of the uptrend.
Best Sell Zone: 0.6630–0.6660
Target: 0.6560
SL: Above 0.6680
Watch for bearish confirmation inside the POI before entering the short.
#forexsignals
Australian Dollar inches lower ahead of RBA policy decision
AUD/USD slips after posting more than 1.25% gains in the previous session.
Australian Dollar may find support as the RBA’s expected 25-basis-point interest rate hike on Tuesday.
The US Dollar struggled as tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz eased.
$AUD /USD edges lower after posting more than 1.25% gains in the previous session, trading near 0.7060 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair could regain traction as the Australian Dollar (AUD) may find support as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected 25-basis-point interest rate hike later in the day, driven by rising inflation risks linked to higher oil prices.
The RBA is widely expected to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.10% from 3.85%, potentially becoming the first G10 central bank to resume tightening. Market participants will closely watch RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference for signals on the future policy path. Meanwhile, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has warned that oil price shocks tied to the Iran conflict pose upside risks to inflation.
A Reuters poll indicates economists expect the RBA to lift rates to 4.10% in March, with the possibility of another increase to 4.35% later this year. Westpac’s shift toward forecasting back-to-back rate hikes reinforces the view that the March meeting is “live,” which could lend support to Australian bond yields and the Australian Dollar.
Meanwhile, the $US
Dollar (USD) has struggled amid easing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. However, its downside may be limited as expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year fade due to the economic impact of the Iran conflict. Concerns that surging crude oil prices could drive inflation higher have dampened expectations for near-term monetary easing.
#AUDUSD
#US
#DollarDominance
AUD/USD slips after posting more than 1.25% gains in the previous session.
Australian Dollar may find support as the RBA’s expected 25-basis-point interest rate hike on Tuesday.
The US Dollar struggled as tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz eased.
$AUD /USD edges lower after posting more than 1.25% gains in the previous session, trading near 0.7060 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair could regain traction as the Australian Dollar (AUD) may find support as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected 25-basis-point interest rate hike later in the day, driven by rising inflation risks linked to higher oil prices.
The RBA is widely expected to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.10% from 3.85%, potentially becoming the first G10 central bank to resume tightening. Market participants will closely watch RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference for signals on the future policy path. Meanwhile, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has warned that oil price shocks tied to the Iran conflict pose upside risks to inflation.
A Reuters poll indicates economists expect the RBA to lift rates to 4.10% in March, with the possibility of another increase to 4.35% later this year. Westpac’s shift toward forecasting back-to-back rate hikes reinforces the view that the March meeting is “live,” which could lend support to Australian bond yields and the Australian Dollar.
Meanwhile, the $US
Dollar (USD) has struggled amid easing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. However, its downside may be limited as expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year fade due to the economic impact of the Iran conflict. Concerns that surging crude oil prices could drive inflation higher have dampened expectations for near-term monetary easing.
#AUDUSD
#US
#DollarDominance
Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 11:
Forex Today: Focus remains on US inflation, this time with Producer Prices.
The US Dollar Index #DXY tumbled to new multi-month lows in the sub-101.00 region amid shrinking US yields across the curve. Producer Prices will be released, seconded by the advanced Michigan Consumer Sentiment and speeches by the Fed’s Musalim and Williams.
#EURUSD advanced to new highs after breaking above the key 1.1200 round level. The final Inflation Rate in Germany and the Current Account prints are next on tap.
#GBPUSD added to the weekly recovery and came closer to the 1.3000 milestone. The GDP figures, Goods Trade Balance results, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, and the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker are all due across the Channel.
#usdjpy retreated markedly and revisited the area of recent troughs around the 144.00 neighborhoods. Capacity Utilization and the final Industrial Production readings will be published on April 14 in Japan.
#AUDUSD climbed to four-day highs after reclaiming the 0.6200 hurdle on the back of the US Dollar’s sell-off. Next of note in Oz will be the release of the RBA Minutes on April 15.
Prices of WTI partially left behind Wednesday’s strong rebound and resumed its downtrend, slipping back to levels below the $59.00 mark per barrel on intense tariff concerns.
Prices of Gold surged to an all-time high near the $3,180 mark per troy ounce on the back of the steep drop in the greenback, trade war jitters and declining US yields. Silver prices rose further and reached four-day tops near $31.30 per ounce, surpassing at the same time their key 200-day SMA.
The Greenback plummeted to fresh lows amid persistent concerns over the US-China trade war and its potential impact on both the global and US economies.
The US Dollar Index #DXY tumbled to new multi-month lows in the sub-101.00 region amid shrinking US yields across the curve. Producer Prices will be released, seconded by the advanced Michigan Consumer Sentiment and speeches by the Fed’s Musalim and Williams.
#EURUSD advanced to new highs after breaking above the key 1.1200 round level. The final Inflation Rate in Germany and the Current Account prints are next on tap.
#GBPUSD added to the weekly recovery and came closer to the 1.3000 milestone. The GDP figures, Goods Trade Balance results, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, and the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker are all due across the Channel.
#usdjpy retreated markedly and revisited the area of recent troughs around the 144.00 neighborhoods. Capacity Utilization and the final Industrial Production readings will be published on April 14 in Japan.
#AUDUSD climbed to four-day highs after reclaiming the 0.6200 hurdle on the back of the US Dollar’s sell-off. Next of note in Oz will be the release of the RBA Minutes on April 15.
Prices of WTI partially left behind Wednesday’s strong rebound and resumed its downtrend, slipping back to levels below the $59.00 mark per barrel on intense tariff concerns.
Prices of Gold surged to an all-time high near the $3,180 mark per troy ounce on the back of the steep drop in the greenback, trade war jitters and declining US yields. Silver prices rose further and reached four-day tops near $31.30 per ounce, surpassing at the same time their key 200-day SMA.
The Greenback plummeted to fresh lows amid persistent concerns over the US-China trade war and its potential impact on both the global and US economies.
Future Lovers👻👽👋💰🔥🚀👍#AUDUSD Expected to trade between 0.6190 and 0.6250
Below 0.6190, a move to 0.6155 can be expected
#FutureTarding #FutureTradingSignals
24-HOUR VIEW: "After AUD fell to a low 0.6192 last Friday and then rebounded, we highlighted yesterday (Monday) that 'the rebound in oversold conditions and slowing momentum indicates that AUD is unlikely to weaken further.' We expected AUD to 'trade in a 0.6195/0.6240 range.' AUD subsequently traded in a higher and wider range than expected (0.6204/0.6255), closing at 0.6225 (+0.27%). The price action still appears to be part of a range trading phase. Today, we expect AUD to trade between 0.6190 and 0.6250."#BinanceFuturesNEXT #BinanceSquareFamily
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from yesterday (03 Mar, spot at 0.6215) still stands. As highlighted, “While declines still seem likely, AUD must break and remain below 0.6190 before a move to 0.6155 can be expected.” We will continue to hold the same view provided that AUD remains below 0.6285 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level from yesterday). Note that below 0.6190, there is another major support at 0.6155."
Below 0.6190, a move to 0.6155 can be expected
#FutureTarding #FutureTradingSignals
24-HOUR VIEW: "After AUD fell to a low 0.6192 last Friday and then rebounded, we highlighted yesterday (Monday) that 'the rebound in oversold conditions and slowing momentum indicates that AUD is unlikely to weaken further.' We expected AUD to 'trade in a 0.6195/0.6240 range.' AUD subsequently traded in a higher and wider range than expected (0.6204/0.6255), closing at 0.6225 (+0.27%). The price action still appears to be part of a range trading phase. Today, we expect AUD to trade between 0.6190 and 0.6250."#BinanceFuturesNEXT #BinanceSquareFamily
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from yesterday (03 Mar, spot at 0.6215) still stands. As highlighted, “While declines still seem likely, AUD must break and remain below 0.6190 before a move to 0.6155 can be expected.” We will continue to hold the same view provided that AUD remains below 0.6285 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level from yesterday). Note that below 0.6190, there is another major support at 0.6155."
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