CPI countdown! Tonight at 8:30 PM, decide whether you are buying the dip or just watching the show

Brothers and sisters, tonight at 20:30, the US February CPI data will be released. This is the biggest macro event of the week, bar none.

Market expectations are an overall CPI monthly rate of 0.3% and an annual rate of 2.4%, with a core CPI monthly rate of 0.2%. Goldman Sachs is even more optimistic, predicting that the core CPI will only increase by 0.17%, believing that inflation in used cars and housing is cooling down.

But why is this particularly important? Because last week's non-farm data unexpectedly weakened, and employment statistics were disappointing. Now, the inflation report has become the only coordinate for assessing the Federal Reserve's policy path—if inflation falls, easing expectations can still hold; if inflation sticks, interest rate cut expectations will go out the window.

What position is Bitcoin in now? Fluctuating around 69600. The area above 72000 has accumulated a large amount of short liquidity, while the range of 67000-69000 below is the liquidation zone for leveraged long positions. There is volume on both sides, just waiting for the CPI to step on the gas in either direction.

Da Chen's judgment:

Data meets expectations or is lower → US dollar under pressure → risk assets rebound → BTC rushes to 72000

Data exceeds expectations → inflation worries heat up → risk-off mode kicks in → BTC tests 67000

Tonight is not about guessing direction, it's about waiting for signals. Mitsubishi UFJ is right, CPI is just the appetizer; the impact of Middle Eastern oil prices will not truly manifest until March.

Operational strategy: Before the data is released, reduce positions. Don't gamble, wait for the right side. Whether it's a short squeeze upwards or a long liquidation downwards, the sickle is already sharpened, just waiting for you to charge in.

Remember Da Chen's words: On the night of macro data, staying alive is more important than anything else.

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