New Research from Google Quantum AI:
The Shor’s algorithm (used to break modern encryption) can now be executed far more efficiently than previously estimated.
A quantum computer would only need approximately 1,200 to 1,450 logical qubits (combined with under 500,000 physical qubits) to break encryption in just a few minutes.
This hardware requirement is thousands of times lower than predictions made in the early 2010s.
Unusual Publication Method:
Google did not publicly release the full technical details.
Instead, they used a cryptographic technique called Zero-Knowledge Proof to prove they had discovered the quantum circuit with these parameters without revealing the circuit itself.
This is extremely rare in the scientific community and indicates that the information is highly sensitive.
Severe Impact on Blockchain:
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and most major blockchains rely on the secp256k1 elliptic curve to secure wallets and transactions.
This type of encryption is much more vulnerable to quantum attacks than RSA (the standard usually referenced in reassuring articles).
Consequence: A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could derive the private key from a public wallet address, allowing attackers to steal all funds without needing any password.
Google’s latest machine, Willow, currently has only 105 physical qubits.
The real danger window is estimated between 2027 and 2033.
Many experts are targeting 2029 as the deadline to complete the transition to post-quantum encryption.
Major Challenges in Transition:
Blockchains must agree on new encryption standards and upgrade their protocols.
Millions of users need to move their assets to new wallets protected by post-quantum algorithms.
“Dormant” wallets (such as Satoshi Nakamoto’s wallets containing hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin) are especially vulnerable because no one is actively moving the funds.
This is not a doomsday announcement, but it is the clearest signal yet that the quantum threat to blockchain has moved from theory to practical reality — and the time to prepare is rapidly running out.
