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The past few years have been a rollercoaster ride for Arm Holdings (
ARM
6.89%
). In late 2020, Nvidia unveiled plans to acquire the chip designer from SoftBank Group for a head-turning $40 billion. The joy in tech land didn't last: The deal was called off in early 2022 when the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) sued to block the marriage. Arm consoled itself by announcing its initial public offering (IPO), and the stock began trading on Sept. 14, 20
Since its public debut, Arm stock has gained more than 200%, far outpacing the 45% gains of the S&P 500 during the same period.
As impressive as that is, Arm has audacious growth plans that could push the stock up another 300% over the next five years.
Arm doesn't have the name recognition of many of its chipmaking peers, but the company reaches into every corner of the tech world. In a regulatory filing, Arm noted that "We architect, develop, and license high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology." The company goes on to say that its CPUs are found in 99% of the world's smartphones and power the vast majority of the world's software.
That isn't hyperbole. Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and Advanced Micro Devices all have Arm's chip designs at the heart of their products. In all, more than 350 billion ARM-based chips have shipped to date, and the company is only just getting started.
Arm has historically made money by collecting license fees and royalties on its cutting-edge semiconductor designs, a strategy that has been extremely lucrative. In its fiscal 2026 third quarter (ended Dec. 31), Arm generated revenue of $1.2 billion, up 26% year over year, resulting in a gross margin exceeding 97%. The company spent heavily on research and development (R&D) (more on that in a minute), so its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.43 climbed just 10%
However, Arm just made a game-changing announcement that it says will drive its revenue up more than fivefold and send its profits to the next level.
Arm's heavy R&D spending yielded big results. The company recently announced the development of its physical silicon for the first time, with the debut of the Arm AGI CPU, a chip it designed specifically for running AI in the data center. The chip boasts 64 CPUs at its heart, armed with 8,700 cores, and "ruthlessly optimized" for AI.
The company already has some of the biggest names in tech lining up to buy its inaugural chip, including Meta Platforms, Cloudflare, SAP, and OpenAI, among others.
Management has run the numbers and expects sales of the Arm AGI CPU to soar in the coming years, generating $15 billion in annual revenue by fiscal 2031 (which ends in May 2031). What's more, the company is forecasting total revenue of $25 billion for the year, which should drive EPS to $9. That would increase the top and bottom line by more than 5x in as many years.
Arm Holdings currently has a stock price of roughly $157 (as of this writing) and a price-to-earnings ratio of 206, though the stock is trading for 73 times next year's expected earnings. If management can achieve the company's lofty goal of generating earnings per share of $9 in fiscal 2031 -- and applying the more conservative multiple of 73 times -- the stock price would soar to $657, an increase of 318%.
It's also important to point out that even minor changes to any of the variables in this equation would change the outlook, so it's only fun with numbers.
What investors really want to know is whether Arm's outlook is realistic or just pie-in-the-sky thinking. Breaking the forecast down into its parts provides context. Arm is expected to generate revenue of nearly $5 billion for fiscal 2026 (which ends March 31), so it would only take annualized growth of 15% in its legacy business to reach $10 billion over five years. So far, so good.
The big question is whether Arm can generate $15 billion in annual sales from its new Arm AGI AI chip. Management said it already has a clear "line of sight" to over $1 billion in demand for its inaugural offering, with more on the way.
Moreover, executives said, "the chip business is targeting customers who either don't have the internal resources or don't have the desire to develop their own chips." In that case, it wouldn't cannibalize Arm's highly profitable licensing and royalties business. Furthermore, rumors suggest the company has other home-grown chips on the drawing board, which would make the $15 billion target much more reasonable. Only time will tell.
While Arm has its work cut out for it, the plan certainly has its merits. Assuming management's estimates are correct, the stock is currently selling for about 17 times estimated 2031 earnings. Looking back five years from now, that might seem like a bargain -- particularly if Arm's chipmaking business expands.
I think there's a strong argument that buying a small stake in Arm could give your portfolio a shot in the arm in years to come.
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Seamos sinceros
Este mercado está hecho para que la mayoría pierda.
$SHIB ? Solo un dulce cebo para las personas que sueñan con la riqueza rápida.
La minoría solo gana... y el resto los financia.
Pregunta: ¿Eres de la minoría? ¿O pagas la factura?
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