The core conclusion of the BTC crash in early February 2026: a resonance of four factors - tightening macro expectations + institutional capital withdrawal + high leverage sell-off + weakened regulation and narrative. On February 6, it briefly fell to $60,000, setting a new low since November 2024, with a cumulative drop of about 20% this week.
1. Core market and key data
- Price plummeted: quickly dropped from $83,000, with a maximum decline of over 15% in 24 hours, over 420,000 liquidations across the network, amounting to $2.56 billion, with long position liquidations accounting for 93%.
- Liquidity and capital: Order book depth has retreated, large sell orders easily trigger volatility; spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, institutional demand is weakening, and the Coinbase premium gap has fallen to its annual low.
- Market Sentiment: The Fear and Greed Index has entered the extreme fear zone, with a large amount of on-chain losses and selling pressure not fully released.
II. Core Reasons for the Plunge
1. Reconstruction of Macroeconomic Policy Expectations (Trigger): Trump nominates Waller as Federal Reserve Chairman, market expectations for sustained high interest rates and a strong dollar, funds withdrawing from high-risk assets, combined with fluctuating expectations for interest rate cuts intensifying volatility.
2. Institutional Funds Continue to Withdraw (Main Reason): Continuous net outflows from spot ETFs, low institutional recognition of valuations; Coinbase premium is negative, large whales continue to sell at low prices, traditional funds' entry intentions are sluggish.
3. High Leverage Liquidation (Amplifier): The number of open futures contracts hits a historical high, high leverage long positions concentrate, prices breaking key levels trigger a series of liquidations, forming a cycle of 'decline—liquidation—further decline.'
4. Tightening Regulation + Weakened Narrative (Deep Layer): New regulations in Hong Kong raise BTC risk weight to 1250%, increasing barriers for bank participation; US regulatory bill progress is hindered, compliance expectations are unclear; the 'digital gold' safe-haven narrative has failed, failing to attract safe-haven funds amid geopolitical risks.
III. Key Supports and Response Recommendations
- Key Supports: $68,000 (starting point for rebound in early 2024), $63,000 (psychological and technical resonance level).
- Response Strategy: Those with no positions should mainly observe, waiting for signals of volume stabilization and fund inflow; holders should control their positions (≤30%), set a stop loss at $63,000, and reduce positions in batches; leveraged users should reduce their multiples (≤5 times), avoiding counter-trend increases in positions.