When is it worth buying the dip for BTC?
1. BTC has not strictly followed the four-year halving bull market pattern. Influenced by Powell's shift at the end of 2023 and off-market demand brought about by the BTC ETF in early 2024, BTC has already broken its previous high before the halving. This indicates that BTC is gradually breaking free from supply patterns and has become a beta asset of liquidity: a risk asset.
2. The timing for BTC's rebound from the bottom depends on when the Federal Reserve abandons its hawkish stance and shifts to a more accommodative approach. This requires "Something breaks," where some macro indicators, especially bond market interest rate indicators, are guiding. This timing is difficult to predict completely, ranging from Q1-Q2 to after the midterm elections (late 2026 to early 2027).
The final conclusion may be close to the four-year cycle time, but predictions made based on time and price calculations are more akin to finding patterns in lottery numbers rather than reasoning. In actual trading, we need to predict the rate of change in liquidity increment based on macro signals.
