I see that after the #Zama went online, there have been continuous complaints from the community, with the public offering opening at a price of 0.05, almost halving directly. It turns out that the primary market also needs to be harvested, even I want to curse him. Many brothers trading coins don't understand what this is all about? First of all, Zama is the leader in the privacy computing track, and his financing background is also impressive: top venture capital firms like a16z and Coinbase Ventures led the investment, and with the endorsement of the founders of Solana and ETH, it can be said to be a star project this year, as well as a project with catastrophic potential.
Let me talk about why it broke the issue price. First of all, I think the marketing team for this project is really trash. Initially, the creators were given over 3000 NFTs to distribute. So normally, there are many paper hands inside. The first wave of creators dumped the NFTs and left (around 100 dollars), but the problem came when they started preparing for the public offering. The project party called out: early NFTs.
The minter can buy 40,000 tokens at a liquidation price of 0.005, which is equivalent to 200 U, meaning it’s always more than 5 times the return. Normally, the secondary market NFT buying is just participating in the public offering with a 10% token bonus, equivalent to NFT empowering early minters. With this point alone, I think it’s garbage. If you want to sell out in the public offering, you must empower the users who participate in the public offering. Others spend real money to buy your things. Otherwise, don't give this empowerment that increases the selling pressure in the secondary market. I personally didn't buy the coin, but in the secondary market, I picked up over 80 NFTs at 80 dollars (total).
Spent 6400 dollars, currently one costs 15 dollars. Why am I operating NFTs? Because the total number of NFTs is too small, only 5500 corresponding to 55 million of the project side's liquidation FDV. It's also betting that they can create some hype before the public offering, but the project's marketing is basically non-existent. Watching the secondary market being smashed, I can say that the secondary NFT can be casually pulled up; spending a small amount of money, the public offering can buy out, but there is still no action. Zama's Dutch auction had more than 10,000 participants; normally, if everyone is optimistic about bidding over 1000 dollars, who wouldn't buy NFTs? The fact that the floor hasn't risen indicates that among the more than 10,000 participants, most are just here for quick profits and arbitrage; there are actually very few real long-term participants.
Mainly also because starting from the second half of 2025, new projects in the primary market generally break even (especially technology projects), and investors have extremely low tolerance for 'early narrative projects.' Even leading projects like Zama will be brought down by the macro environment.
In fact, the price of coins essentially looks at how many real users are behind it. Many people compare the XPL deposit project of 25 years with similarly capable star teams, wondering why there is such a big difference? First of all, privacy computing is no longer a new concept; Zama's FHE is 'future-level technology,' and as of 2026, there is currently no large-scale commercial use, and the market does not recognize 'early technology valuation.' The root cause is that there is no ecosystem, no necessary scenarios, just an early impressive technology. Plus, among the more than 10,000 users, most are speculators, leading to severe short-term selling pressure on the coin price. Whether the price can return still depends on the subsequent actions of the project side.
So let's talk about #XPLToken $XPL (Plasma Network): this is for stablecoins, and at that time there was also a deposit event, but this project is all institutional/enterprise-level users. The pre-deposit activity was filled with 825 million in less than 15 minutes, retail investors couldn't even get a chip. Coupled with the pain points of 'Ethereum Gas is expensive, Tron is congested,' there is real payment/settlement demand behind it; so essentially it's 'application-oriented track' vs 'early technology track,' which is not comparable at all. So, as I said: for institutions and smart money, there has never been a fear of high positions, as long as the project is feasible and can land, they will still take over and push it up!
Let's also talk about why many are asking how the project side raised so much money? Did the young models go to the club? In fact, I watched the public offering end at around 4 AM that day, and the last bidding jump was obviously not real users putting in over 40 million in the final minutes. It was just left hand buying right hand closing eyes to buy some data, indicating that the project side still has money to fill but the short-term selling pressure is still large. Therefore, we should focus on several ranges: around 0.03, we can start to build a small position - accumulation range from 0.025 to 0.03 (this point has already tested a support). The target is to see 0.1 to 0.2.