Something feels different about $BTC this cycle.
We all know Bitcoin’s usual rhythm: bear markets average around 365 days. By that measure, we’re only about one-third of the way in.
But here’s the twist — this cycle is moving faster.
Price has been falling at roughly 1.25× the usual speed. BTC also topped earlier than previous cycles (October), which increases the odds that the bottom arrives earlier too.
My base case:
The market bottoms in August, not Q4.
That’s why my accumulation window is June → August.
This isn’t just gut feeling — the structure backs it up.
Market cycles appear to be compressing. With growing institutional demand, miner supply and OG selling are being absorbed more efficiently. As that balance shifts, Bitcoin may start acting less like a boom-bust asset and more like a traditional risk asset, closer to the S&P 500’s cycle behavior.
Looking at drawdowns:
We’re likely 22–30% away from the bottom
Historically, smart money accumulates between -40% and -60%
I don’t see a -70% drawdown happening this cycle
My view:
We’re roughly 20% from the bear-market low, with the bottom forming in Q3.
Using the 365-day model, there are about 200 days left to a formal bottom. That leaves two scenarios:
Slow sideways chop with a gradual bleed
A sharp dump that ends the bear market early
I’m betting on the second.
Earlier pain, earlier bottom.
