#Mizuho #materials

Applied Materials was upgraded to "Outperform" from "Neutral" by Mizuho on Wednesday, as the firm pointed to a sharp recovery in capital spending on semiconductors and improved demand across foundry and logic customers.

  • Analyst Vijay Rakesh raised the price target for the stock to $370 from $275, stating that the company is poised to benefit from a "significant acceleration" in spending on wafer fab equipment (WFE) through 2027.

  • Mizuho expects WFE growth of 13% year-over-year in 2026, followed by another 12% in 2027, which represents "a significant acceleration compared to our previous expectations."

  • With nearly 65% of revenues tied to foundry and logic customers, Rakesh pointed to increased capital expenditures from TSMC and improved spending on tools at Intel as key drivers of growth.

  • TSMC's capital expenditures are expected to be "much higher" between 2026 and 2028 than they were in the 2023-25 period, with spending expected to increase by 32% to $54 billion in 2026 alone.

  • Demand for memory is also expected to provide support. Rakesh noted that DRAM memory associated with high bandwidth memory (HBM) should remain strong, representing about 30% of Applied Materials' revenue base.

  • While China remains a burden, with the company's revenues from China expected to decline by 4% this year, the analyst said the rest of the world - about 70% of sales - is accelerating at a faster pace. He added that AI-driven investment is pushing advanced development in the sub-2nm node.

Rakesh stated that the broader rise in global spending on WFE creates "strong tailwinds for all WFE suppliers," supporting his upgrade and higher estimates for 2026 and 2027.