Bitcoin took a strong hit over the weekend. The price fell below 80,000 USD for the first time in many months, and the correction from the local peak has already exceeded 30%. At the time of writing, BTC is trading around 78,700 USD, and the market clearly shows that there is a lack of fresh capital.
This drop once again turned attention to Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and their huge exposure to Bitcoin. The average purchase price of BTC by the company is around 76,000 USD, so technically speaking, the position is currently 'underwater'. However, this is more of a psychological problem than a real threat.
Most importantly: Strategy is not in danger of liquidation. The company holds over 712,000 BTC that are not pledged as collateral. Even convertible bonds valued at $8.2 billion do not pose an immediate risk, as their first maturity dates are not until 2027. This provides ample time for refinancing or conversion to equity.
Michael Saylor has long reiterated that Bitcoin's volatility does not change his strategy. In his narrative, deep declines are simply moments of further accumulation. History shows that Strategy has gone through similar periods before, including in 2022, when the BTC price was significantly lower than today.
The problem with the market is not Strategy itself, but the lack of new capital. According to CryptoQuant, the realized market capitalization of Bitcoin is stagnant. This is a signal that new money is not flowing into the ecosystem, while current investors are gradually realizing profits, mainly from ETFs and previous institutional purchases.
CryptoQuant CEO, Ki Young Ju, clearly states: without fresh inflows, there is no talk of a continuation of the bull market. The market may enter a longer phase of consolidation, and any further declines would not be surprising. Levels around $66,000 are increasingly appearing in analyses as a realistic scenario if supply pressure continues.
At the same time, Ju reassures that a classic 70% crash, known from previous cycles, is not the base scenario today. As long as major players, including Strategy, do not start selling off en masse, the market is likely to be 'eroded' slowly rather than experiencing a sharp collapse.
In summary: Bitcoin is at a difficult moment in the cycle. Emotions have subsided, the narrative has cooled, and the market is testing investors' patience. This is not yet capitulation, but it is also far from euphoria. The coming weeks will show whether new demand will emerge or if we are in for a longer, exhausting consolidation.