Global markets have entered the zone of the 'perfect storm', where the ambitious plans of Washington, the conservatism of central banks, and hidden debt risks in Asia have collided. The situation as of January 31, 2026, is characterized by three key points of tension.
1. The 'Hawk' Factor: Revolution in the Federal Reserve
The nomination of Kevin Warsh for the head of the Fed became the main trigger for market volatility.
Conflict of interest: Trump aims for low rates to stimulate the economy, while Warsh is known for his commitment to strict monetary discipline.
Market shock: The expectation of a Fed balance sheet reduction (liquidity withdrawal) caused a sharp strengthening of the dollar and a collapse of defensive assets: gold fell by 5%, silver - by 13%. Bitcoin, as the main indicator of liquidity, came under pressure around $82,000–$83,000.
2. 'Project Crypto': Institutional foundation
The U.S. administration is moving from words to action. SEC leaders (Paul Atkins) and CFTC (Michael Selig) launched a joint initiative 'Project Crypto'.
Goal: Harmonization of rules and creation of a clear classification of digital assets.
Change of course: Rejection of 'regulation through coercion' in favor of creating transparent rules of the game. This is an attempt to bring crypto capital back into the U.S. jurisdiction and integrate blockchain into the traditional financial system.
3. Asian vacuum: The gap in 'carry trade'
While the U.S. discusses policy, the Bank of Japan is creating real pressure on the markets.
Mechanism: Rate hikes in Japan make the yen more expensive. Investors, who have borrowed cheap yen for years to buy risky assets (U.S. stocks and BTC), are forced to close positions to repay debts.
Result: This creates a liquidity 'vacuum' that pulls markets down more than any statements from politicians.
Outcome for the investor
The market is transitioning from the 'euphoria of expectations' phase to the 'real risk assessment' phase.
$BTC has become a hostage of the strengthening dollar and Japanese yen.
The Fed under Warsh may become more predictable but less generous with 'free money'.
Trump's policy lays the foundation for the growth of the crypto industry, but this path will be accompanied by high volatility due to the market clearing of speculative excess.
February 2026 will be a moment of truth: Can faith in 'digital gold' withstand the shrinking dollar mass?