The last week of January leaves us with a complex and aggressive technical scenario for XRP holders. After losing support areas that had functioned for weeks, the market structure has changed from sideways to clearly bearish in the short term. Let's analyze the cold data to understand the current context without falling into panic.
📊 1. OVERVIEW: The bears take control
This week has been marked by a downward expansion of volatility. If we look at the daily chart, XRP has lost the comfort zone of 1.80 USDT and the price is currently "walking" on the lower Bollinger band.
This technical behavior, known as "walking the bands", denotes a strong selling conviction. We are not facing a simple range correction, but a directional impulse that has dragged the price down to local lows of 1.7043 USDT, nullifying the previous bullish structure. The relative strength of the movement suggests that sellers are still actively pressing.
📉 2. STRUCTURE READING AND KEY LEVELS
Price action and volume tell us a story of structural weakness and search for counterpart:
Support Break (Flip S/R): The level of 1.80 - 1.85 USDT, which acted as a solid floor, has been decisively breached. Now, according to auction theory, that area automatically becomes immediate resistance ("ceiling") that bulls must reclaim to show strength.
Absorption at Lows: In the 4H chart, we see an increase in volume coinciding with the wick at 1.7043. This suggests that there was some buying interest ("strong hands" or algorithms) defending the round number of 1.70.
The Liquidity Map: By analyzing the Heatmaps, we see that the price was magnetically attracted to the liquidation zones of long positions. Currently, liquidity blocks (passive buy orders) are protecting the area of 1.66 - 1.70 USDT. The market will seek that area if the current support fails.
🧠 3. SENTIMENT AND RISK MANAGEMENT
Market psychology is one of fear and exhaustion, but the indicators suggest caution in both directions:
Stress Indicators: The RSI on the 4H timeframe has fallen to deep oversold levels (28.78).
Management: It is crucial to remember that oversold is NOT an automatic buy signal in a strong downtrend. The price can remain "oversold" for a long time while continuing to fall. The market has punished those who tried to "guess the bottom" (catching a falling knife) prematurely this week.
🎯 4. CONCLUSION AND MINDSET
The technical verdict for the weekend is: FRAGILE / BEARISH TREND.
The structural damage is visible. XRP needs to stop the bleeding and first recover the area of 1.75 - 1.78 to even think about neutralizing the drop.
Suggested approach: Protection and Patience. Don't rush to buy the dip. It is preferable to wait for the price to build a solid floor (accumulation) above 1.70 or confirm a recovery above 1.75 with volume before looking for entries. Preserving capital is the priority now.
The content is informative and personal opinion based on technical analysis. It does not constitute financial advice. The crypto market involves risk. Do your own research (DYOR).
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❓ Do you think the level of 1.70 USDT will hold up against selling pressure this weekend or will we see a new liquidity sweep? I'll read your comments below. 👇