The performance of gold prices in the past 24 hours has been quite shocking, plummeting from a high of about $5,626, with a decline close to 5%. Bitcoin has dropped to around $82,000, hitting a two-month low.

The movements in global markets over the past few days have left many investors dumbfounded. Originally, it was expected that the Federal Reserve would continue to cut interest rates, but surprisingly, U.S. stocks, government bonds, gold, and Bitcoin have all collectively fallen. Why has gold failed during such turbulent times?

The market is currently digesting a highly controversial piece of news: Trump may nominate Kevin Warsh to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Who is he? He was a Federal Reserve governor and is well-known in the financial world. Although he has recently publicly supported interest rate cuts to cater to Trump's political needs, the market has not forgotten his long-standing hawkish nature. Betting platform Polymarket shows that the probability of his selection has soared to 80%.

If Trump really appoints a hawk in sheep's clothing, will our anticipated rate-cutting cycle be cut short? This is why U.S. Treasury yields are rising and the dollar continues to strengthen, as everyone is lowering their expectations for easing policies.

While the financial market is entangled over the selection of the Federal Reserve, geopolitics has thrown a bombshell. Reports indicate that the U.S. military has deployed 10 warships in the Middle East. Iran has also issued a clear warning: if the U.S. launches an attack, Iran will immediately strike U.S. military bases in the Middle East, including aircraft carriers.

Typically, when geopolitical wars break out, gold prices should soar; why has gold instead fallen nearly 5% this time? It indicates that the current strength of the dollar and rising yields have become strong enough to overshadow the support of safe-haven sentiment.

The current situation gives me the impression that: the boss (Trump) wants to find an obedient accountant (Warsh) to lower interest rates, but this accountant was famously stingy in the past, causing creditors (the market) to quickly sell off their IOUs. If Warsh takes office and turns hawkish, combined with the war in the Middle East pushing up oil prices and reigniting inflation, do we still have a safe haven for our assets?

The current deadlock is clear: as long as the dollar remains strong, gold and Bitcoin will struggle to see the light of day. And if those 10 warships in the Middle East really take action, the secondary damage from soaring oil prices will make the Federal Reserve even more reluctant to cut rates.