The phrase "BACK 2026" superficially appears to warn that 2026 will repeat historical bear markets (such as the significant declines in 2018 or 2022), as the traditional 4-year cycle (with a peak occurring 1-1.5 years after the halving, followed by a bear market) would make 2026 the starting point of a "crypto winter."
However, according to market consensus and institutional views from late 2025 to early 2026, this "warning" has become outdated. Most mainstream voices believe that the traditional 4-year cycle has either broken or died, and it is unlikely that a classic deep bear market will occur in 2026; instead, it may mark the continuation of an upward trend or the beginning of a "supercycle."
Why is the warning that the 4-year cycle has 'returned' unfounded?
Historical patterns broken by institutional funds: past cycles relied on retail sentiment + halving supply shocks, with a 70-80% crash after peaks. Now spot ETFs (BlackRock, Fidelity, etc.) lead to passive buying, and institutional allocation reduces volatility and shallowens corrections. After reaching about $126K in October 2025, BTC corrected but did not crash, proving the point.
Key institutional viewpoints:
Binance founder CZ: In 2026, Bitcoin will enter a 'super cycle', breaking the 4-year cycle. He only holds BTC and BNB, does not trade, emphasizing that global pro-crypto policies (especially after the Trump administration in the U.S.) will drive sustained increases.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan: Clearly stated 'the 4-year cycle is dead', 2026 will be 'the year of rise' (up year), new ATH may occur. Halving impacts each cycle, institutions + rate cuts + favorable regulations outweigh the old model.
Grayscale: The 2026 outlook states 'the four-year cycle ends', but the bull market is not over; new highs may be reached in the first half of the year. Institutional demand + regulatory clarity (such as the CLARITY Act) will attract more funds.
Bernstein: Cycle breaks, entering an 'extended bull market', 2026 target $150K.
Others: Standard Chartered also sees $150K+, VanEck believes 2026 will be more of a 'consolidation year' rather than a crash.
Possible price range in 2026 (institutional summary)
Optimistic: $150K–$250K+ (super cycle, driven by institutions + sovereign adoption)
Neutral: $100K–$180K (slow rise or sideways, volatility compression)
Conservative/Bearish: $60K–$90K (if macro tightening or cycle remnants take effect, but deep corrections are only expected to be 30-50%, unlike the past 80%)
A minority opinion (such as some Fidelity analysts or some on-chain models) still believes parts of the cycle are effective; 2026 may be a 'dormant year' or fall towards $65K–$75K support, but the mainstream no longer expects the classic 'crypto winter'.