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$BTC $RIVER Depth analysis of the Chán theory: The high-level 'second sell' signal has appeared, is the bearish counterattack beginning?

Structural analysis: After the price retracement, a LH (lower high) is formed, failing to break through the previous high of 66.071. In Chán theory, this is a standard 'second type selling point (2S)', indicating that bullish momentum has exhausted.
Indicator assistance: MACD is expected to dead cross at a high position, and bearish energy bars are beginning to expand. Although the larger trend is upward, the 4H level urgently needs to test the support below.

Bearish probability (Plan A): 65%
Reason: The high point HH has appeared, and the subsequent rebound forms LH (lower high), consistent with the classic 'Dow Theory 123 rule' for trend reversal at an early stage, also aligning with the definition of a second sell in Chán theory. The MACD at the 4-hour level shows insufficient momentum, with strong demand for a pullback.
Bullish probability (Plan B): 35%
Reason: Although the overall larger trend is upward, the current candlestick pattern shows heavy selling pressure above. Bulls must wait for the pullback to stabilize (trading time for space) before exerting strength again; the probability of a direct V-shaped breakout above HH is relatively low.

Pay close attention to 62.8: If the 4-hour candlestick closes above 62.8, it indicates that the bearish plan has failed, and one should exit and observe immediately.
Pay close attention to 53.0: This is the dividing line between bulls and bears; falling below here means the establishment of a high-level center, and the market will shift to a turbulent downward trend.

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