Diamond Brother is competing in the Web3 trading world, revealing secrets that trading experts won’t teach you! Refuse external noise; you must understand BTC's current situation.

①First, the most valuable essential weekly line for K-line cycles, because the cryptocurrency market operates 24 hours, which is three times the traditional 8-hour securities time. Basically, one week in the cryptocurrency world is equivalent to one month in the traditional sense. This is also the source of the saying that one day in the cryptocurrency world is like ten years in the human world.

②The biggest pressure in this round comes from ETF funds, so we need to choose the point where ETF fund costs are most concentrated, starting from the position of this needle that reached over 50,000 in August 2024, after BlackRock's completion of the handover.

③ The indicator uses VPVR to reflect the position of capital accumulation, while the BOLL chart reflects the random movement of price and the strength state. The sub-chart selects trading volume, RSI, ATR, and MACD to assist in judgment.

④ The downtrend is the best time to find support levels, formed by connecting historical low points with trend lines (green line 1, 2) and confirmed by horizontal low points (blue line 1 price 85605, blue line 2 price 75015). The ETF accumulation moving average (red line, price 63474)

⑤ Reviewing recent trends, the price has broken through the bull-bear boundary (green line 1) by falling on increased volume, touching a short-term low at the 80000 level, forming a new trend support line (green line 2). Since November 2025, a relatively strong bottoming structure has developed, which is positive. If it wants to break below green line 2, some news and external factors must lead to a volume increase in the drop, rather than relying on the current level of trading volume.

The auxiliary indicators RSI, ATR, and MACD all show bearish characteristics, but it is still unclear whether a bottom is being formed; however, at least it has reached the position of a bear market that is already halfway through.

⑥ Market simulation: In scenario 1, the coin price gradually recovers under macro momentum, with an effective emotional bottom at 80000, successfully passing through 2026, and the market entering a halving cycle in 2027. In scenario 2, it is a sideways market, eventually exhausting buy orders, with ETF selling pressure unable to be absorbed, breaking below the 85000 support level, entering the range around 75000, and potentially breaking below in a systemic crisis, entering the range of 63000-70000.

Personally, I give my subjective judgment probabilities for these scenarios: scenario 1 is 30%, scenario 2 is 70%. In scenario 2, breaking below 75000 is 20%, and breaking below 70000 is 10%. (The probability for scenario 2 given by polymarket is 80%, so my judgment is slightly more optimistic.)

Now that the probabilities and odds are out, how should one place bets?

Going long on 1 BTC has a 30% probability of earning 70k, with an expectation of 21K; a 70% probability of losing at most 30K and at least 10K, with an expectation between -21k and -7K. This means that from a long-term investment perspective, going long is almost risk-free, with only a 10% probability of breakeven.

Of course, using this algorithm becomes very difficult with a levered position, as you simply cannot hold on until the end, and you might not even wait for the 10% probability to appear before being wiped out. Respect leverage, always keep some reserves, and the market will ultimately reward those who are prepared.

If this article can strengthen your investment in the crypto space for 2026, please leave a message to let me know; your attention is my motivation to share!