#RIVER #Crypto #技术分析 Many people are asking if $RIVER will rise again? Looking at the 4-hour level, a very dangerous signal is occurring in the market.
Using the 【Chánlùn】 system to analyze, $RIVER seems to be constructing a huge “high-position trap.” If you are still blindly chasing highs, please read this trading plan, it may help you save a few thousand U.🧵 👇
Trend Qualitative Analysis——High Position Center Shock
Since the peak at 66.071, the nature of RIVER has changed.
1️⃣ 1 Sell Confirmation: The 66 high point V-shaped reversal, that is the first signal of the main force retreating.
2️⃣ 2 Sell Prototype: The subsequent rebound only reached a maximum of 54, failing to create a new high, the bullish strength has clearly weakened.
3️⃣ Current Status: The price is currently fluctuating in a wide range of [38.00 - 54.00], constructing a 4H level center.
⚠️ The center of gravity is moving down!
Although the current market is still above the “lifeline” (white diagonal trend line), there are hidden dangers in the details:
MACD: Fast and slow lines cross down, red bar momentum is reducing.
Trading Volume: The rebound here is without volume, a typical “center shock weak period.”
This means: The current price position is very awkward, with extremely limited upward space.
Trading Plan (Mainly Short)
Based on the Chánlùn structure, I prefer the “high short strategy,” capturing the downward move of the center:
📉 Aggressive Signal: Focus on the 50.0 - 52.0 range. If a top divergence + MACD divergence appears at the 15/30min level, I will directly enter with a light position.
📉 Conservative Signal: Wait for a break below the white trend line and the lower edge of 38.0, a pullback that does not exceed this will confirm.
🛑 Stop Loss: 54.50 (If it breaks here, the structure will be bad, and the short position must exit).
🎯 Target: T1 looks at 38.0, T2 looks at 32.0.
Trading is not about guessing coins, but about handling “probabilities.” Currently, RIVER is stagnant at a high position, with too much trapped selling above, the risk-reward ratio for seeing a pullback is far higher than betting on a rebound.
