๐จ Rumors of an attack: There are active discussions on social media and some specialized channels about an insider tip that Iran may deliver a retaliatory strike (either through a proxy or directly) immediately after the closure of American stock exchanges. The logic is simple: strike when the classical market is 'asleep' to cause maximum chaos in crypto and futures.
Trump's response: This morning (around 07:00 MSK), Trump already made a statement in his style: 'Let's see what happens.' He confirmed that the USA is sending additional forces to the region. The American contingent there is currently at peak readiness.
Market reaction (that drop to $87k): Bitcoin has already 'swallowed' part of that fear. The drop from $93,000 to $87,000โ$88,000 that we see today is a reaction from large players to potential escalation. Traders are simply cashing out to avoid waking up with a 'hole' in their deposits if rockets fly at night.
Gold vs Crypto:
Interesting marker: gold is racing towards $5,000 today, and silver towards $100. This is a classic 'flight to safety.' Usually, crypto rises with them as 'digital gold,' but in the face of direct war threats, it often first falls with stocks due to liquidations, and only then starts to recover.
๐ก What should we, simple mortals, do?
If an attack really happens at night, the volatility will be such that stop losses may just get blown through.
Don't long on margin: Right now, the market is a powder keg. One message on Twitter/X can swing the price by $5,000 in either direction.
Watch oil and gold: If they start rising sharply after 23:00 (MSK), it means the insider information about the attack is confirmed.
Iranians are buying crypto themselves: Insider from the blockchain โ against the backdrop of protests and sanctions, the Central Bank of Iran purchased $500 million in USDT, while ordinary Iranians are massively transferring BTC to cold wallets. Even there, people do not trust their currency and are turning to crypto.
My advice: If you're not a professional scalper โ it's better to be a spectator today. The market won't run away, but your deposit could burn up in a couple of minutes during escalation.