Solana faces a decisive technical moment after a correction of approximately 14%, which has brought the price to its first relevant support zone. Price action has entered oversold territory on the 4-hour chart, which historically precedes periods of relief or consolidation.
The SOL/USD pair has landed at the critical level of 125 USD, an area that significantly coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the last bullish impulse. The momentum of the decline shows signs of weakening in this timeframe, a first indication that sellers may be exhausting their strength and that the price could begin a consolidation phase to test the strength of this support.
Defending the 125 USD zone is the essential condition for any immediate recovery. If SOL can maintain its ground above this level, it could generate a technical rebound aiming to reclaim the psychological barrier of 136 USD. This level would not only act as resistance, but would also test a key technical convergence: the meeting of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. A rejection in this zone would revitalize the bearish bias.
This last point is crucial. Since a new bearish crossover between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages would constitute a significant technical signal, confirming the structure in the bearish trend (price redistribution). Such a scenario would open the door to a deeper redistribution phase, with a projected drop target at 103 USD, a level derived from the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
On the contrary, if buyers manage to push Solana beyond the resistance at 136 USD with a convincing weekly close, the scenario would change radically. This breakout would invalidate immediate bearish pressure and mark the end of the sideways accumulation phase. In such a case, a new bullish momentum would be activated, with a main technical target set at 171 USD, defined by the bullish Fibonacci projection.