Recently, I've heard a lot of such statements.

This time is different, the logic has changed, Bitcoin has become institutionalized. In short, just one sentence: “Bitcoin will not crash again.”

$BTC #特朗普对欧洲加征关税 The bull-bear cycle is as ordinary as the changing of the seasons; how could there be no crash? Even the Nasdaq can drop more than 40% during adjustments, so why do you believe Bitcoin won't drop by 60%?

Since Bitcoin in 2023,

that is, in the past two to three years,

there has not been a drop of more than 50% from its highest point.

This has made many people let their guard down; the past bear market history is too long, and there hasn't been a drop of more than 50% in the past two to three years.

As a result, many people believe there will never be a crash again.

However, since 2023, Bitcoin has been in a weekly spiral rising bull market, and it is normal that there hasn't been a drop of more than 50% along the way.

In contrast, the obvious characteristic of a bear market is a weekly spiral decline.

That is, at the weekly level, each peak and trough is lower than the last. Constant oscillation downwards eventually leads to a desperate U-shaped valley.

The accumulated decline in a bear market is enormous,

dropping by 50% can lead to another drop of 50%.

This is enough for someone who made several times profit in a bull market to give back all their profits, and in the end, even turn from profit to loss.

We all hope this time is different,

the environment has changed, and crashes are gone.

But what is really different every time?