Today, $BTC finally broke through the two-month consolidation range. One of the key drivers behind this rebound is the slowdown in core CPI (Consumer Price Index), which will force the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy.
But the next developments are the real main event:
1) Tariff Ruling
At 10 a.m. Eastern Time today, the Supreme Court will rule on Trump's tariff policy.
Trump recently stated that if the ruling does not favor tariff enforcement, it would severely impact the U.S. economy.
The market currently普遍 expects the Supreme Court to rule against the tariffs.
But will this decision be beneficial or detrimental to cryptocurrencies? The current situation is somewhat complex:
Positive logic: When Trump announced tariffs in April 2025, the crypto market experienced a severe crash. Based on this, a ruling against tariffs should boost the market. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's stance remains hawkish as they expect tariffs to significantly increase inflation. If the tariffs are lifted, the Fed will be able to cut rates more quickly, which would be a major positive for the crypto market.
Negative logic: The U.S. stock market has continued to rise and set historic highs over the past six months. Trump has repeatedly emphasized that this is due to tariffs, and the market somewhat agrees. Therefore, if the ruling is against tariffs, the stock market may face a dump, subsequently dragging the crypto market down.
It is this extreme uncertainty that will trigger wild market volatility.
2) (Clarity Act)
Tomorrow at 10 AM Eastern Time, the U.S. Senate will hold a markup session and vote on the (Clarity Act). If passed, the bill will be submitted for a full Senate vote.
Currently, the market expects a 56% probability that the bill will be signed into law within this year.
If you are not yet aware, the (Clarity Act) will bring about the following significant changes:
Preventing FTX-style runs: Exchanges will conduct regular asset verifications.
Developer freedom: Project teams will be allowed to publicly discuss roadmaps and development plans.
Comprehensive regulation: Cryptocurrency exchanges will be fully regulated.
Crackdown on manipulation: False trading (Wash trading) and price manipulation are expected to decrease by 70%-80%.
Clear status: Most cryptocurrencies are clearly not classified as securities.
This means that the market may not experience a crash like that on October 10, nor will there be another FTX-style run. Moreover, regulatory clarity will allow large institutions to allocate funds to assets beyond Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the SEC may also approve Trump's executive order regarding the allocation of cryptocurrencies in pension funds.
In summary, this could be the catalyst for the next bull market. Tomorrow's vote is just the beginning, but if it succeeds, the odds will increase significantly.
Finally
The start of 2026 is very promising for the crypto market. BTC has already risen, and altcoins are gaining momentum. However, these key events in the future will either end this rebound or push the market directly into a parabolic explosion phase.