Based on economic analysis and data from the World Gold Council, the trend of central banks accumulating gold is expected to continue through the end of this decade (2030) or until a new global monetary order is established.
There are three main factors that determine when this trend will slow down:
Until U.S. Debt Reaches a Critical Point. As U.S. national debt continues to grow (currently above $38 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately ~123% - 128%), countries will keep buying gold to protect their wealth from the risk of dollar depreciation. It's not necessarily bad that this number is large—Japan's debt ratio is even higher at 237%. However, if the U.S. successfully implements large-scale fiscal reforms, interest in gold may subside. Perhaps at that time, blockchains like $BTC and other blockchains will be considered as new assets. Moreover, gold is already integrated into chains such as $PAXG , enabling large-scale bank transitions to exchange their gold for PAXG to BTC as a medium of exchange. This is based on personal opinion that trading timing no longer follows traditional market opening hours but operates 24/7 on the blockchain. Every transaction comes with an automated smart contract. Exchange rates also differ or have spreads, even reaching 10-12% above traditional market prices—this is a significant difference. In contrast, blockchain transactions require only gas fees of 0.1% - 3%, or even fixed fees rather than percentages. This gives blockchain a substantial advantage. Thus, it's not impossible that this gold surge marks an excellent beginning for the future.
The emergence of a New Currency (BRICS), if the BRICS alliance successfully launches a stable and trusted payment system or currency, the need to accumulate gold as a "security anchor" may decrease. This is due to the fact that BRICKS currency is pegged to gold. However, this process is expected to take at least 5 to 10 years. Seeing China, which has been aggressively buying gold every month since 2024-2025, it is highly likely that the readiness of BRICKS currency will officially begin to be tested publicly in 2030-2035. The year 2026 is targeted as the start of BRICS Pay operations, and by 2030, BRICKS PAY is targeted to reach full operation absorbing up to 15% of global transactions. By 2030, BRICKS also aims to guarantee 40% of its gold for each of its currencies. Currently, BRICKS controls about 50% of world gold production and continues to aim for 65-70%, allowing them to allocate 40% into reserves. This will make BRICKS the strongest currency in the world because the dollar is not backed by physical assets at all. Nevertheless, the political challenges will be enormous. Moreover, the West already has 23-25% of the world's gold reserves in central banks. Unlike BRICKS, although production is large, the amount entering reserves is still very small. So until one side loses, this gold competition will only subside. But seeing the current geopolitical conditions, this will take a long time. And the growth of gold will continue.
Until Global Inflation Stabilizes, Gold is the natural enemy of inflation. Central banks will continue to add gold as long as they are not sure that inflation can truly be controlled at low levels permanently. Moreover, the technological condition continues to consume state reserves, and debt keeps increasing. There is a new concept in energy, this is different from gold. NVIDIA and TESLA are collaborating on energy development in space with solar panels. This is because it is always daytime in space; the sun is never blocked. It is also estimated that it will not consume large costs as the sun will never run out, thus the required batteries will not be many. Then building data centers in space and sending them to Earth is also a practical step that can make Earth function normally again as it is not burdened by large power for AI and blockchain. This does not mean that the Earth does not upgrade its energy level. It is clear that currently there are only 3 energies that can run today’s technology, namely, solar power with the sun, nuclear reactors, and geothermal. If countries want to continue to keep up with this new technological era of AI and Blockchain, then one of these 3 energies must be possessed as a supporting infrastructure for the increasingly connected and multipolar world.
As a result of this overly advanced technological development, the world is not yet ready. AI and Blockchain, Gold and Energy. The world will not be able to survive if the energy supply comes solely from oil and gas. This leads to energy crises and inflation in other sectors. For the sake of resilience, countries will have to choose their best reserve priorities.
From these 3 reasons, this upward trend seems likely to last a very long time. From the targets of these countries, we can see the first segment is in 2030-2035. It is in this year that whether the BRICKS currency successfully operates fully and allocates 40% of the world's gold as its reserves or not. Or if space energy is successfully achieved by TESLA and NVIDIA. If one succeeds, there will be technological deflation due to cheap energy prices. Thus, the world can return to how it was before.
However, success does not mean it can run smoothly; it still needs time for refinement. With an estimate of 10 to 20 years ahead, this means around 2045-2055.
Looking back, the conclusion is that although energy can stabilize again and inflation subsides, deflation of technology values occurs. Gold will remain a hedge in times of crisis. The current rise in gold is a real value that continues to grow.