#stack
A good frame for filtering noise around "the independence of the Fed".
The simplest and most intuitive indicator here is not rhetoric, but deviation from the Taylor Rule. As long as the Fed's rate is roughly in line with what inflation and unemployment dictate, we can speak of technocratic policy. Once the rate systematically moves below the model while inflation remains sticky, it's no longer about data—it's about pressure.
Historically, an increase in the spread between the actual Fed Funds Rate and the Taylor Rule rate has almost always preceded asset inflation. Money becomes cheaper than what the economy allows, and this instantly flows into multipliers, risk, and financial bubbles.
If the pressure on the Fed continues to develop, this gap will become an early signal that the independence is cracking not just in words but in numbers. And the market will react faster than the next statements are released.