On gold and commodities:
Regardless of market disagreements, the core logic of gold remains only two: its safe-haven attribute and industrial/reserve demand.
As for the narrative or conspiracy theories about 'eliminating the dollar,' they can largely be ignored.
At the current price level, is the risk-reward ratio of gold still attractive? This is what deserves more consideration. From a risk-reward perspective, it is not cheap.
When you notice more and more people around you consistently becoming bullish on gold, you should at least remain a bit skeptical.
Current state of U.S. stocks and structural pressures:
After the rebound in U.S. stocks, the resistance level is very clear.
PE is approaching 30, not cheap at all, and we are entering the dense earnings disclosure period—risks have not disappeared, they’ve merely been deferred in pricing.
Marginal changes in the financial system:
U.S. banks have begun implementing a flat 10% policy on credit cards, risk control measures—short-term negative for banks. The transmission to consumption, employment, and corporate cash flow warrants ongoing monitoring.
Early signs of a non-structural bull market:
The market is beginning to show signs of 'a百花齐放' (a flourishing of diverse trends), with some niche areas already taking off:
Real estate investment, space industry, drones, defense, foldable solar, CUP, and other themes.
Employment, recession, and interest rate expectations:
Employment data continues to be subject to repeated interpretations, and there is no consensus in the market on whether we are entering a recession, or whether such an answer is being guided.
On rate cuts:
The current data market and 'public opinion' suggest that rate cuts are unlikely in January.
Currently, it's more about 'expectation trading' rather than 'actual realization,' with a clear mismatch between timing and market pricing.
At the same time, there is an expectation of a 150bp rate cut within the year.
On crypto:
Meanwhile, U.S. stocks centered on crypto (from Coinbase to BMNR) have shown relatively dull performance over the short term.
Laohei is nearing full position, and his strategy carries an offensive tone.
From a first-principles perspective, what are long-term funds betting on?
a16z announced fundraising of approximately $15 billion around AI and crypto.
The significance of such capital lies not in short-term gains
It's a long-term bet;
It's about influence on industrial direction;
The continuous ability to allocate resources and build ecosystems;
More suitable as a directional reference rather than a short-term signal.
What's worth investing in is always markets you understand or have growth potential in.
Exercising restraint is more valuable than chasing consensus.