New macro data has come out and it is much worse than I expected.
99% of people will lose everything this year.
Take a close look at this chart.
Everything starts with sovereign bonds, especially U.S. Treasury bonds.
Bond volatility is waking up.
The MOVE index is rising, and this never happens without pressure beneath the surface.
Bonds do not move based on stories, they move when funding becomes tight.
1⃣ US Treasury Bonds
In 2026, the United States must refinance massive debt while suffering from a large deficit.
Interest costs are rising, external demand is fading, traders are constrained, and long-end auctions are already showing cracks.
Weaker demand. Bigger tails. Less balance.
This is how funding shocks begin - quietly.
2⃣ Japan
The largest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds and the essence of global carry trade.
If the dollar/yen exchange rate continues to rise and the Bank of Japan reacts, the carry trade will unravel quickly.
When that happens, Japan also sells foreign bonds - adding pressure to US yields at the worst possible time.
Japan does not start the fire, but it will contribute significantly to it.
3⃣ China
The problem of their massive local government debts remains unsolved.
If these pressures emerge, the yuan weakens, capital flees, the dollar strengthens - and US yields rise again.
China inflates the shock.
The trigger does not need to be dramatic.
One poorly received auction for 10 years or 30 years is enough.
We've seen this before - the UK's crisis in 2022 followed the same scenario.
This time, the range is global.
If a funding shock hits, the sequence is clear:
Yields rise → the dollar rises → liquidity dries up → risk assets decline rapidly.
Then central banks intervene.
Liquidity injections → swap lines → balance sheet tools.
Stability returns, but with more liquidity.
Real yields decline → gold surges → silver follows → bitcoin recovers → commodities move → the dollar weakens.
The shock sets up the next inflationary cycle.
That's why 2026 matters.
Not because everything is collapsing, but because multiple pressure cycles peak at the same time.
The signal is already there.
Volatility in debt securities does not rise early by coincidence.
The world can withstand a recession.
What they cannot handle is the irregular treasury market.
This risk is quietly increasing - and when it becomes clear, it will be too late.
Pay close attention.