Multiple statistics indicate that the Spring Festival period is one of the strongest performance periods for Bitcoin in the year.
The probability of increase is as high as 83%: Matrixport's data analysis indicates that in the past 12 years, Bitcoin has achieved positive returns during the Spring Festival in 11 out of 12 years, with a very high success rate.
The average increase is considerable: Statistics show that the average increase during the Spring Festival exceeds 21%. There are also statistics for specific periods (such as the 7 days before New Year's Eve to the seventh day of the new year) showing that the average increase is between 5% and 10%.
Recent performance: In the past few years (such as 2023 and 2024), the increase during the Spring Festival reached 26% and 23% respectively, and this trend remains strong recently.
This 'seasonal effect' is typically driven by several factors together —
'Red envelope money' and purchase demand: During the Spring Festival, Chinese people account for a significant portion of trading volume in the cryptocurrency market. Many people invest their year-end bonuses or 'lucky money' into the market, directly driving buying demand.
Funds liquidity: At year-end, some investors close positions to realize profits, and funds look for new channels for growth. Bitcoin, as a mainstream asset, tends to be favored.
Market sentiment and network effects: During the Spring Festival holiday, people have more leisure time to focus on the internet and investments. This increased attention often translates into trading activity, amplifying upward trends.
Holiday effect: The cryptocurrency market operates 24/7, while traditional financial markets (such as A-share) are closed. This may cause some funds to seek highly liquid investment assets during holidays, leading to inflows into the crypto market.
