$MERL This so-called 'Christmas market' seems to have the flavor of 'cutting韭菜' (a slang for exploiting investors). Now, the $MERL has fallen from a high of 0.44 to around 0.422. If you didn’t build a position near 0.44 before, the current price actually provides a more relaxed entry point.
Currently, the market has shifted from 'inducing buying' to the 'declining distribution' phase:
The 0.43 level has become a resistance: after the price broke below 0.43, multiple attempts to rebound have failed to stabilize. The 0.422 position is quite delicate, as it is just at the turning point after the MA5/MA10 moving averages have flattened. If it continues to move sideways here without quickly recovering 0.43, the next stop will be a downward break.
Bearish momentum is accelerating: the 4H MACD negative bars are lengthening, and the RSI has fallen back to around 48 from the overbought area, with no signs of stopping the decline. Compared to the aggressive stance at 0.44, the price at 0.422 seems more like confirming a downward trend.
The truth of liquidity exhaustion: As the price slowly declines, the support from buy orders appears very thin. Under the shadow of heavy selling pressure from the massive unlock on December 19, the current 0.422 is still not the bottom, but more like a continuation of the decline.
Practical trading suggestions:
1️⃣ Short at current price: Directly build short positions in batches in the range of 0.422 - 0.428 (utilizing rebounds for additional positions).
2️⃣ Defensive stop loss: Slightly adjust to above 0.442 (as long as it doesn’t recover the strong resistance at 0.435, the bearish structure remains intact).
3️⃣ Profit target: The first target remains at 0.405 - 0.41; if it breaks below 0.40 with volume, directly look at the support at 0.385.
0.422 hasn’t fully dropped yet. Don’t fantasize about a 'Christmas miracle' bottoming at this position. If it can’t stabilize at 0.43, all sideways movements and slight rebounds are just to fall deeper. Strictly take losses, discipline first.