According to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, the famous four-year Bitcoin market cycle — based on halvings and the traditional phases of rises followed by corrections — may belong to the past.
Historically, the Bitcoin market has often been described as a rhythm 📉⬆️: three years of increases, followed by a year of significant decline. But for Hougan, the levers that drove this cycle — such as halving or ultra-leveraged markets — are losing their influence.
📈 Why this change?
Massive institutionalization: the arrival of capital through Bitcoin ETFs and adoption in professional portfolios are reconfiguring market dynamics.
Clearer regulation: a more favorable legal framework, particularly in the United States, could reduce perceived risks and attract even more investors.
Decreasing volatility: Bitcoin seems to be maturing, with volatility that could become lower than that of some traditional tech stocks.
📆 And what about 2026?
Rather than being a correction year as the four-year theory suggests, Hougan bets on new historical highs in 2026. This perspective is based on the idea that Bitcoin is now driven by long-term structural forces — and no longer just by a simple halving schedule.
🪙 More than just a Bitcoin
Bitwise is not limited to Bitcoin: optimism extends to other cryptos like Ethereum or Solana, especially if regulatory advancements like the CLARITY Act come to fruition.
✨ In summary, the old cyclical model of Bitcoin — which dictated rises and falls every four years — could be replaced by a new era dominated by institutional adoption, regulation, and a more mature market dynamic. �
Source: Journalducoin.com
