When it comes to accumulating Bitcoin, what you need to think about is the proportion you occupy in the total supply. Being overly concerned about the price can easily lead you to be left behind in the long river of cryptocurrency history.
If you think Bitcoin at 88,000 is expensive, you can look at a set of data —
On the surface, it seems that 19.68 million BTC have been mined, with only 1.32 million left unmined. But the fact is, on-chain data shows that one-third of the mined Bitcoin is lost. This means that many people, although they bought early, have likely lost their seed phrases, effectively resulting in this portion being passively destroyed.
This amounts to about 5 to 6 million coins. Additionally, there are approximately 1 million held by various governments, over 1 million as ETF inventory, and two major holders: BlackRock with over 700,000 and MicroStrategy with over 600,000. Satoshi Nakamoto has over 1 million, and some large holders and miners who do not sell long-term likely have around 2 million. Together, this adds up to nearly 15 million.
The amount available for purchase on the market is only around 4 million. If they all refuse to sell, where could the price drop to?