#USJobsData Bitcoin price has extended its correction after the FOMC rate cut. The coin is down about 13% over the past 30 days and almost 4% in the past week. The move still fits inside a slow, grinding corrective phase since the October peak.

But two on-chain shifts now show something that did not appear at any point earlier in this downturn. These signals suggest the correction could be close to a turn — if Bitcoin delivers the push it needs.

Two Metrics Now Point Toward a Possible Turn

Short-term capitulation is showing up clearly now. CryptoQuant’s realized profit-and-loss data shows short-term Bitcoin holders are still deep in losses. This usually happens near the end of a correction, not the middle, because panicked selling at a loss often marks late-stage exhaustion.

This fits with what shows up on HODL Waves.

HODL Waves measure how much Bitcoin each “age band” holds — from very new coins to very old ones. It shows which groups are accumulating or selling. The one-day to one-week cohort held 6.2% of the supply in late November. By December 10, they held only 2%.

That is a massive 68% drop and signals heavy short-term selling, the kind that often completes a correction rather than starts a new one. Plus, this cohort dumping also pushes speculative money out of the asset.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

The next signal comes from Exchange Net Position Change, which tracks how many coins move into or out of exchanges each day.

On November 27, net flows were +5,103 BTC (coins moving in).