$BTC
The whole market remains calm, do not get overexcited.
To be honest, BTC's trend is a bit weak. From the overall KC channel and the long-term weekly and daily trends, there are three possible scenarios:
1. In the long term:
The first scenario is that it can't break 94,000, leading to a weak rebound, followed by a direct reorganization of the C wave. The probability of this is relatively high.
The second scenario, which has a slightly lower probability, is a direct pullback to 0.618 (around 102,000).
The third scenario, which has the lowest probability, is a direct postponement of the bull market.
The ratio is roughly 5.5:3.5:1.
2. In the short term:
✔ RSI divergence rebound appears
✔ KC lower band quickly rebounds
✔ The angle of moving averages is still downward → the nature of the rebound is a "corrective rebound"
The most likely trends in the next two weeks:
The first scenario continues to rebound to 94,000 (strong resistance) → then falls back for consolidation.
The second scenario is a strong breakout → pushing towards 98,000–112,000.
But it must: increase in volume, RSI stabilizing above 50, 4-hour MA50 must be crossed.
The third scenario is an early end to the rebound → falling back to 86,000–88,000.
The ratio is roughly 6:3:1.
But regardless of the trend, we must follow the market. Technical indicators can only solve 70% of the problems; the remaining 30% cannot be solved by technology.
