- A law on temporary funding has been signed: agencies are returning to work after 43 days of standstill; appropriations have been extended until January 30, 2026, which removes administrative delays and uncertainty for businesses and regulators.
- Trump thanked the Republican leadership and announced the immediate resumption of government operations, setting a course for stability after the break.
- Medical block: instead of subsidies for insurance, the idea of direct payments to citizens for purchasing necessary services is discussed — a subject for further negotiations in Congress.
- The package covers funding for key items and allows for the return of employees, repayment of salary delays, and normalization of operational processes.
Analysis for markets and crypto
- Markets: political overhang removed — in the short term, this is a plus for risk assets and credit spreads; focus shifts to inflation/Fed and the trajectory of UST yields.
- Fiscal: if direct transfers go into development, there could be a boost to consumption and GDP, but the discussion about the deficit and yield curve will intensify.
- Crypto/regulators: the restoration of departmental operations resumes approval and hearing procedures; we are monitoring the calendar of committees and initiatives on digital assets.
What to watch next
- Text of the agreement and December votes on the medical block: volume, criteria, offsets — impact on CPI/PCE and yields.
- Schedule of hearings and releases from regulators after the reboot, including the agenda on the crypto market.
- Market trade: checking the reaction of the volatility index and UST 2–10 against the backdrop of reduced shutdown risk and expectations regarding the rate.
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