Once upon a time, the primary market was the empire of VC, KOL was the trumpet of the empire, and retail investors were the fuel of the empire. VC provided the money, KOL raised their voices, and retail investors took over — this was a closed loop carefully woven with trust and power, the last centralized ritual of the old world.
But today, this ritual is being dismantled by a silent revolution. VC's endorsement is no longer valuable, retail investors' wallets no longer follow blindly, and KOLs have transformed from “trumpets” to “holders,” even becoming judges who determine the life and death of projects. This is not a simple role reversal, but a reconstruction of the power structure: from “capital is king” to “influence is king,” from “institutional monopoly” to “traffic decentralization.”
KOL cycle: the fissures of the old order, the stirring of the new world
At the end of 2022, the winter came for VCs. Overvalued, no exit, bleeding in the secondary market... The old engine has stalled, but retail investors quietly return. Blast, ZKsync, Friend.tech - every liquidity explosion is a declaration of retail investors voting with their feet: we no longer believe in institutional research reports, we only trust the person analyzing on-chain data late at night on Twitter.
The project party finally wakes up: VCs can give me money, but KOLs can help me break out. Thus, the KOL cycle is born - this is not charity, but a gamble to hedge capital risks with influence. Low-priced chips, quick unlocks, guaranteed clauses... KOLs have become 'private equity with tasks', becoming the traffic futures that the project party advances with future liquidity.
But this game has never been win-win.
The truth: the revelry of sudden wealth, the lament of going to zero.
In a bull market, the KOL cycle is a fairy tale of 'three wins': project financing, KOL wealth, retail following. But when the bear market hits, the fairy tale shatters into pieces.
Aster, 70 times floating profit, is the myth of the lucky ones;
HoloWorld AI, 444% cashing out, is a victory for actuaries;
SatoshiVM, KOLs offloading at high positions, project collapse, is a funeral for trust;
ZCasino, the project party absconded with funds, KOLs became 'accomplices', it's a moral judgment;
Eclipse, overvalued, Binance contracts not launched, is a specimen of the bubble.
KOL is calculating: reputation and principal, how to safely exit?
The project party is wondering: can traffic and price increases fulfill promises?
Retail investors are asking: this time following the trend, is it an opportunity or a trap?
This triangular game is like three forces pulling in different directions, tugging at the skeleton of the KOL cycle. And the intermediary - Agency, is the puppeteer in this game. They control resources, design terms, select KOLs, and even set 'guarantee' or 'refund' rules. They are the rule makers of the new order, and the gray bridge between the old world and the new world.
Influence is new capital, but also a new shackle.
The KOL cycle gives ordinary people the opportunity to 'squeeze into the primary market' - as long as you continuously produce content and build influence, you might get a quota. This seems like a victory for decentralization: information barriers are broken, capital power is diluted, and influence becomes the new ticket to entry.
But is this a perfect mechanism?
No.
It lacks standards, responsibilities are vague, KOLs use the faith of fans to pay for their own capital, and the project party uses KOL traffic to dig pits for retail investors. Influence has become a new tool for exploitation - you are no longer exploited by capital, but kidnapped by the 'influence economy'.
Conclusion: After the narrow gate, is it light, or is it an abyss?
The KOL cycle is a narrow door left for ordinary people in the primary market. It makes financing more open, dissemination quicker, and allows small projects to gain new life without VCs. But its essence is still the last struggle of the old world before it collapses - packaging centralization with influence and extending the life of bubbles with traffic.
When KOLs become holders, and influence becomes capital, what we really need to ask is:
In this era, are we really using influence to rebuild trust, or are we overdrawing influence with trust?
The rituals of the old world have collapsed, and the rules of the new world have yet to take shape. The KOL cycle is not the end, but a transitional solution - it exposes the fragility of centralized financing and reveals the possibilities of decentralized narratives.
But in the end, the code won't lie, the chain won't remain silent.
When the traffic recedes, when FOMO fades, who can still open their wallet at night without guilt?
Influence can become capital, but only real value can become eternal.