Technical indicators: In the daily chart, the RSI(14) is around 50 points (neutral level). The daily MACD is negative (histogram below the signal line, indicating selling pressure). The ATR(14) is around 1.093 (approximately 1% of the price), suggesting moderate volatility. The short-term moving averages (5, 10, and 20 days) show a buy signal, while the longer-term ones (50, 100, 200) are in sell mode, indicating that the price is moving in a sideways or consolidation range. In the 4-hour timeframe, the price has undergone correction but does not yet show extreme signals of overbought or oversold. In summary, the technical indicators show a phase of indecision: there are no very clear pivots, although the short-term bias is slightly bearish (stronger volumes on declines).
Key support and resistance levels: Critical supports are near $106,000â$109,600. These levels coincide with daily pivots (for example, classic S1 ~106.541 USD) and with the 200-day moving average (~$107,400). Further down, the zone of $100,000 (365-day moving average) is a key psychological support. On the other hand, immediate resistances are located at $113,000â$114,000 (also corresponding to intermediate moving averages and R1 pivots). Above, the next target is the previous all-time high near $126,000. In summary, $106â109k acts as support (pivot supports and MA), and $113â114k as resistance; breaking these ranges will define the direction of movement.
Bullish and Bearish Scenarios:
Bullish scenario: If Bitcoin remains above ~$109k and manages to surpass the resistance near $113k, new rises could activate. In that case, an impulse towards the range of $120kâ$126k (its old record) is possible. In fact, some analysts suggest that, with a favorable macro environment, BTC could even reach $150,000 by the end of the year. The following chart illustrates this scenario: the price consolidated sideways and a bullish break could lead it to new all-time highs. Possible expected highs: 115â120K in the short term, then 126K (record) and eventually ~150K according to forecasts.
Possible entries: In this case, it would be advisable to buy in support zones ($106â$109k) managing risk with a stop below those levels. Another entry would be on a breakout above $113k, which would confirm the upward turn. Partial targets would be set at the resistance $113k (daily pivot) and then at the all-time high (~$126k).
Bearish scenario: If it loses the support of ~$105k (for example, a stable daily close below), selling pressure would intensify. Glassnode warns that a clear break below $100,000 would open the way for a drop towards ~$95,000. The break of ~$105k already accelerated the recent correction to ~$103k. Possible expected lows: an intermediate support at ~$100k, and if broken, ~95k according to technical analysis.
Possible entries: In this case, a short position could be entered upon confirming the drop below ~$105k (stop above that level), with targets at $100k and even $95k. Alternatively, a temporary rebound could serve to take shorts near the resistance of $106â109k if the bearish scenario strengthens.
News and macroeconomic events: During the week, there will be several key catalysts. In the U.S., the publication of the September CPI (October 24) stands out: if the core annual inflation remains below the ~2.9% expected, the possibility of rate cuts would increase, which usually benefits Bitcoin; if it comes out above, selling pressure could continue. Additionally, the Fed meets on October 28-29. Markets are already pricing in at least a 25 bp cut at that meeting, but any more restrictive tone (due to hot inflation data) would negatively affect crypto. Globally, monetary policy is still restrictive and a strong dollar maintains a negative âanchorâ on risk assets. Geopolitical and trade tensions also raise risk aversion, so bearish movements in stocks or the dollar (safe haven) tend to drag down Bitcoin.
Another recent factor has been the flows of Bitcoin ETFs: on Friday, October 16, there was a net outflow of about $536 million from spot ETFs, the largest since August. This forced managers to sell BTC to cover redemptions, pressuring the price below $105k. The current high correlation of Bitcoin with risk indices (S&P, Nasdaq) is also notable, reinforcing the price sensitivity to the stock market situation. In summary, the macro outlook (rate decisions, inflation, labor data) will set the course for the week; for now, caution is high until we see those key results.
Sources: Own analysis supported by reports from CoinDesk, TradingView (community ideas), and CriptoNoticias, complemented with technical data from Investing.com. These sources provide the most recent indicators, support/resistance levels, and macro context to support the analysis.
