Context and decline
In October 2025, Bitcoin plummeted below $110,000, dragging down more than $250 billion from the crypto market. The correction was driven by the announcement of new 100% tariffs between the U.S. and China, which triggered massive sell-offs in both cryptocurrencies and stock markets. The intraday drop of 11% was one of the most severe since 2022.
Macroeconomic causes
• Geopolitical tensions: the new trade war reduced global risk appetite.
• Restrictive monetary policy: high rates and Treasury bonds at 4.8% diverted capital towards safe assets.
• Regulatory uncertainty: halted the flow of institutional investment in crypto assets.
Outcome: Bitcoin acted as a traditional risk asset, not as a crisis refuge.
Technical factors
• A double top formed in the US$125k–127k zone.
• RSI fell from 68 to 39 (exit from overbought).
• The breakout of the MA100 (~US$110k) triggered massive liquidations of over US$7 billion.
• Sentiment shifted from “greed” (63/100) to “fear” (28/100).
Conclusion: the market was over-leveraged and euphoric, and the macro shock only lit the fuse.
Market reaction
• Retail traders panicked, but whales accumulated BTC.
• The buying volume on exchanges increased by 22% during the drop.
• The event “cleaned” the market of short-term speculative positions.
• On-chain fundamentals (storage in cold wallets and institutional accumulation) remain strong.
Key technical levels
• Immediate support: US$105,000
• Critical zone: US$98,500–92,000 (Fibonacci and historical support)
• 200-day moving average: US$107,000 (technical defense line)
• Main resistance: US$121,800–122,000
• Expected range: US$100k–122k while the market consolidates.
Predictions for Q4 2025
Institution Base Scenario Argument
Citigroup US$133,000 ETF and sustained corporate interest
JPMorgan US$165,000 Rotation from gold + low relative volatility
Standard Chartered US$200,000 Strong institutional inflow + USD weakness
Bearish scenario (Schiff) US$75,000–83,000 Risk aversion and correlation with stocks.
Conclusion
Bitcoin enters the last quarter of 2025 at a turning point:
• If the macro environment improves (pause in rates, lower geopolitical tension), it could resume its path to new historical highs.
• If global uncertainty persists, it will consolidate between 90k–110k.
The market remains divided, but the general consensus is that the correction reinforced the long-term structure and that the 2026 halving could be the next big catalyst.
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