XRP starts April 2026 and is stuck in a downward channel that has determined the price since mid-July 2025. March closes with approximately -1.94%, marking the red streak now continuing for six months in a row since 2025.
A death cross on the 3-day chart, decreasing confidence among mid-term holders, and a risky increase in leverage all indicate ongoing pressure.
However, April has historically been a strong month for XRP. Whether this seasonal strength can overcome the structural problem will determine the price movement of the coin in April.
History offers hope, but the 3-day XRP chart warns
The chart with monthly returns shows that the XRP price is struggling in 2026. January, February, and March historically show negative median returns, so declines in these months were somewhat expected.
April shows a different picture on paper. The historical average return for XRP in April is +24.8%, with a positive median of +2.05%. However, it is risky to rely solely on the past, especially since 2026 has already broken various seasonal patterns for BTC and ETH.
The 3-day chart shows why caution is needed. XRP has been declining since mid-July 2025 within a downward channel. The recent downward trend resulted in a death cross, where the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), a trend line that gives more weight to recent price movements, crossed below the 200-day EMA.
Previous EMA crossovers on this timescale caused significant corrections. In October, the 20 EMA dropped below the 50 EMA, leading to a decline of 32%.
A crossover in January led to a decline of 54%. The current death cross has so far resulted in a correction of 19%.
When the pattern continues towards the bottom of the descending channel, the cautious price target is around a 35% decline. Considering the widest part of the channel, the correction could reach up to 54%.
Between November 24 and March 23 on the 3-day chart, XRP made a lower high in price, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, hit the same level.
That the RSI is not rising with the larger pattern, and the hidden bearish divergence, suggests that the pullback that started on March 17 may continue further. This confirms that the correction caused by the EMA is likely not over yet.
Conviction holders are beginning to doubt
However, technical indicators do not yet provide certainty about a deeper correction. For that, we also need to look at the on-chain data.
The HODL Waves metric, which measures the percentage of the supply across different age groups, shows that confidence is waning among mid-term holders as April approaches.
The 6-month to 12-month group, one of the most loyal XRP holders, began to increase their share at the end of February. Their holding went from 22.768% to 23.54% on March 27.
But since March 27, this group has been reducing their holdings. Their share dropped from 23.54% to about 22.98%. The moment follows closely on the RSI signal from March 23, suggesting that the same bearish pressure visible on the chart is now also influencing holder behavior.
If these holders continue to reduce their positions with conviction in April, a significant structural support for the XRP price will be lost. And the cost basis data shows exactly where that support lies.
The heatmap with cost basis distribution reveals a dense cluster of approximately 19.6 million XRP concentrated between $1.27 and $1.28. This is the strongest demand zone nearby.
If XRP drops through this cluster, the loss of this support base could accelerate selling pressure, especially now that holders with conviction are already pulling back.
New longs build risk as open interest shifts
The current leverage is still a concern for April. Open interest decreased from $975.77 million on March 17 to a low of $723.96 million on March 23, a decrease of 26%. It then rose again to $752.98 million.
The recovery means that new positions are being opened and not old positions are being maintained.
The funding rate, which shows the balance between long positions and short positions in perpetual contracts, increased from 0.0015% on March 17 to now 0.008%. A rising funding rate combined with increasing open interest indicates that new long positions are being opened.
This creates a fragile situation. Shorts were liquidated during the decline from March 17 to March 23, but the XRP price did not really bounce back.
Now, long positions are coming in again against higher funding rates, while the price pattern, the convinced holders, and the RSI are all bearish. If the XRP price drops below the cluster of $1.27, these long positions face the risk of liquidation, which could further strengthen the decline.
XRP price levels to watch in April
The key level for April is $1.29. This is at the 0.786 Fibonacci level and just above the large supply between $1.27 and $1.28.
A 3-day closure below $1.29 makes the cluster immediately vulnerable. If that cluster breaks, the next support is at $1.20 at the 1.0 Fibonacci level. Below that level, $0.96 comes into view in the longer term.
For an upward movement, XRP must first get back above $1.45 before recovery is possible, followed by $1.50. A rise above $1.60 would mean a clear breakout of the trend line and would change the XRP price outlook for April from defensive to more positive.
April is now about defending $1.29. The death cross, weaker convinced holders, the large supply just below the current price, and the risky leverage buildup all indicate a greater chance of further decline.
A stable close above $1.45 gives a chance for a recovery to $1.60, but a continuation to $1.20 or lower remains likely if this does not happen.