🧮 Science Popularization: What is the 'Fear & Greed Index'? Why might it be a good thing that it has dropped to 8?
Recently, everyone has been frequently seeing the term 'Fear & Greed Index', so today we'll do a simple science popularization.
📌 What is the Fear & Greed Index?
The Fear & Greed Index, compiled by Alternative.me, ranges from 0 to 100:
• 0-24: Extreme Fear
• 25-49: Fear
• 50: Neutral
• 51-74: Greed
• 75-100: Extreme Greed
📊 How is it calculated?
It takes into account the following 6 dimensions:
1. Volatility (25%): BTC's volatility over the last 30/90 days
2. Market Momentum/Volume (25%): Current trading volume vs historical average
3. Social Media (15%): Discussion heat on platforms like Twitter
4. Surveys (15%): Investor sentiment surveys
5. BTC Dominance (10%): Changes in BTC's dominance
6. Google Trends (10%): Search volume related to cryptocurrencies
📈 Historical Patterns:
• Buy BTC when the index is below 15, with a median 90-day return of +38.4%
• March 2020 (index=8) → 6 months later +133%
• November 2022 FTX collapse (index=10) → 6 months later +96%
• Current index=8, extreme fear for 46 consecutive days (the longest in history)
⚠️ Important Reminder: The Fear & Greed Index is an emotional indicator, not a trading signal. In 2022, when the Terra/Luna collapse occurred, the index was 6, but BTC still fell by 4.5% six months later. The key is to determine whether there are structural risks.
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