Big Hammer Eighty

It is now 2026.03.30 at 17:38. Recently, I have been validating my trading system in the bear market of the A-shares. It’s been a long time since I seriously wrote a market analysis 😆.
Currently, the BTC price is around 67500, and it hasn’t touched the 68388 long-term entry point suggested by the strategy channel on the 27th; it has already entered at market price. Last Wednesday, the single options trade did not reach the take-profit point, and after doubling, I lost all in the pattern, with a floating loss of 1.5%.
The BTC price has experienced a consecutive four-day decline after touching 72000 multiple times, with a rebound starting from the morning low of 64900. Here, we continue to follow the strategy channel from the 27th; if it breaks the trend line and then rebounds, we short it. If it breaks through the trend line again, we stop loss. Currently, this strategy also aligns with the views of most bearish traders in the market. As for whether the main force will continue to plunder the liquidity above before dropping again, we cannot predict that; let’s focus on what we see for now. Recently, I was almost shattered by the market that rose 100 points after getting stopped out of the BTC short position at 71888 last week, which then dropped. It might be a punishment for often gambling on precise points in the past, haha. The last short position entered at the market price of 71100, with a stop loss at 71888, and the high price at 72000. Due to the stop loss being slightly less, I missed out on 6000 points after losing over 100 points, which I indeed regret. Why didn’t I pull the stop loss a bit higher? Future strategies for entry points might change; raising the stop loss doesn’t align with current trading habits, so we’ll see later. Returning to the market situation, it’s well known that BTC is currently in a bear market, and there are various opinions about which stage of the bear market we are in. Personally, I adhere to past views; we are still in the oscillation recovery after an oversold BTC price, not yet at the bear market low. We are currently at the end of the recovery period and could see a wave of decline testing new lows at any time, so I've been advising friends not to go long recently. As for the next testing low point, I think it will be around 53000 on the left side, which is also our spot entry point. Once we reach there, I will continue to modify my trading approach, focusing primarily on spot trading and reducing the frequency of contract trading, taking a wait-and-see approach for now. Overall, there hasn’t been much change in the BTC trading strategy; we go short on rebounds. Speaking of options, I have recently been gambling on large single sides. After two trades doubled, I didn’t exit and chose to hold, resulting in losses in options. My personal approach to options is that it feels like buying a lottery ticket; either you hit the jackpot or feed the dogs. Doubling in options and exiting doesn’t align with my personal trading habits and can easily lead to missing the chance to hit the jackpot.