Is ETH going to drop to $1200? Analysts issue a warning

Something big is happening with Ethereum.

I just saw analyst Leshka.eth's viewpoint, and honestly, it aligns with the signals I’m seeing on the charts — the ETH daily chart is reenacting the historical 'bull trap' structure.

This pattern has appeared twice before: in October 2025 and January 2026, both times quickly reversing after 'turn bullish' signals, dropping 45% and 48% respectively. Now the same structure is appearing near $1990, and if it can't hold, the target below directly points to $1200, with a potential drop of 40%.

It's not just the technicals; capital is also fleeing. The US ETH ETF has recently seen a net outflow of $300 million, and on-chain demand has fallen to a 16-month low. Large holding addresses have been stagnant since the end of last year; whales and sharks are on the sidelines, with no buying support, making the market very weak.

My strategy is simple: $1990 is the critical watershed. If it breaks, decisively exit or short; if it can hold, it’s merely choppy, and don’t participate heavily. In an environment where liquidity is retreating, staying alive is more important than making money.

This week, the non-farm payroll and ADP data are coming in thick and fast; if ETH coincides with negative news and breaks support, it could be the beginning of an accelerated decline.

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