Stop waiting for a pivot that isn't coming 🚨
The market just slapped a 39% probability on the Fed doing absolutely nothing this year. If you’re still trading based on "imminent rate cuts," you’re fighting the math.
Here is the cold reality:
Inflation is sticky: Core PCE is hovering at 2.7%, and with the Strait of Hormuz in a chokehold, energy prices are a ticking time bomb.
The Fed is comfortable: GDP is holding at 2.4%. They have zero incentive to "save" a market that isn't actually breaking.
The Leadership Myth: Everyone is obsessed with who takes over on May 15, but a new name in the chair doesn’t change the CPI print.
The "higher for longer" plateau is the new floor. If you aren't hedged for a zero-cut 2026, you’re exit liquidity.