Yes, significantly lower than the actual value.
Honestly, I think this is truly a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity in this field, as the metrics compared to gold have hit a bottom (the lowest point ever).
A statistical measure for this is the MVRV ratio.
This ratio is calculated based on the ratio of the current market price to the actual average price.
It indicates whether many buyers of the supply are currently at a loss and the extent of that loss. Therefore, it shows the undervaluation or overvaluation of that specific asset.
A few key points to take away from this:
1. Previous bull markets are the weakest markets ever, which is quite understandable as the MVRV ratio did not rise as expected. Since volatility and the pace of price increases did not occur, the corrections do not necessarily have to be as severe as previous bear markets.
Simply put: previous bull markets tend to rise stronger, so the corrections are more painful.
In the current case: timing is a difficult period, especially if you're on the higher risk curve in altcoins, it makes it even harder.
2. Consistent with my earlier main argument, the MVRV ratio shows extremely low valuation based on typical purchase prices. It dismisses any predictions of lower prices, as that has always been true in any extreme bear market predictions.
Therefore, it indicates that the current MVRV ratio is identical to the MVRV ratio during the bottom of the bear market in 2022, the COVID crash, or 2018.
Sure, everything can definitely go lower, but what happened after these phases?
After 2018: +200% in one year.
After 2020: +1700% in fourteen months.
After 2022: +700% in two years.
Be pessimistic, fine, but the data shows that good times are ahead as history has proven these points.