On March 23, Monday, President Trump announced a five-day halt to airstrikes on Iran's energy infrastructure. This decision led to an additional $170 billion influx into the U.S. stock market, a 15% drop in oil prices, and Bitcoin prices surpassing $70,000. This halt has been extended until April 6.
However, Tehran dismissed these claims as 'fake news.' Israel has already violated Trump's halt. Most of these financial gains disappeared within a week. This raises the question of whether Donald Trump actually engaged in productive negotiations with Iran or if it was merely a strategy to allow large investors to realize profits for the financial market.
Trump stops… coinciding with market time
This incident will begin on Saturday, March 22. Trump posted a 48-hour ultimatum on Truth Social, demanding that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on power plants.
This deadline was set to expire on Monday evening, and traditional markets were fully exposed.
However, Trump posted on Monday morning at 7 AM (Eastern Time) that he had a “very good and productive conversation” with Tehran. He announced that all attacks on energy infrastructure would be postponed for five days.
The 5-day grace period expired on Saturday, March 28. This date is not a coincidence.
The stock market will be closed.
There is a lack of liquidity in the futures market.
The institutional trading desk is offline.
If the situation resurfaces, it will occur in the same low liquidity period that preceded all major market shocks during Trump's era after mid-2025.
The market moved first before the official announcement was made. Between 6:49 AM and 6:50 AM (Eastern Time), about 6,200 Brent and WTI futures contracts were traded, with a nominal trading amount of $580 million.
According to Bloomberg data, the average trading volume over the previous five trading days during the same time frame was about 700 transactions. This fact was reported by the Financial Times.
At the same time, $1.5 billion was bought in S&P 500 futures. This order immediately raised the index by 0.3%. Fourteen minutes later, Trump's post went up. At 7:10 AM (Eastern Time), the market capitalization of the S&P 500 increased by about $2 trillion.
It has been reported that U.S. and UK regulators are reviewing relevant data. So far, no charges or accusations have been made.
“The surge in trading volume just before the post is clearly unusual enough to raise suspicions. I believe an investigation should start to determine what triggered it.” – CBS News, quoting Troutman Pepper law firm futures trading partner Stephen P. Feggras.
Iran, false claim
There was no ambiguity in Tehran's reaction. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf described it as “fake news” aimed at manipulating financial and oil markets.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs classified the claim as a psychological operation to lower energy prices and buy time for further attacks. Government officials emphasized that they received messages through intermediaries, but there were no direct negotiations at all.
This triggered an immediate backlash. Oil prices rebounded, and stock prices surrendered about half of their gains. Bitcoin briefly recovered to $70,000 before retreating, and in 15 minutes, cryptocurrency short positions valued at $286,500,000 were liquidated.
Monday was not the first time. BeInCrypto has been tracking 11 announcements made by Donald Trump that have had a significant impact on the market since November 2024. Each announcement is referred to as the 'TACO pattern' among investors and follows the cycle of action, decline, reversal, and recovery.
The liberation tariffs were announced after the market closed at 4:30 PM (Eastern Time) on April 2, 2025. Trump posted the next morning shortly after the market opened, saying, “Stay calm! Now is the best time to buy!!” Following this, a 90-day grace period was initiated, and the S&P 500 rebounded by 9.5%.
On October 10, 2025, a 100% tariff threat aimed at China was announced 20 minutes after the close of trading on Friday. Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 18.4%. The scale of cryptocurrency liquidations reached $19.1 billion within 24 hours.
From June 2025 to February 2026, six Friday night announcements followed the same logic. BeInCrypto confirmed that this pattern is a sequence that repeats over 60 hours.
The Iranian-related grace measures are an evolved form. Instead of the shock on Friday and a reversal on Monday, Monday itself has become the focal point. Saturday will feature the ultimatum, Monday will bring relief, and the next announcement window will open again on Saturday.
Expert Perspective
Oxford political scientist Richard Heydarian warned on the BeInCrypto podcast that the economic damage from this dispute could reach trillions of dollars. He mentioned that predicting Trump's tactical moves is difficult.
“Trump is strategically predictable but tactically completely unpredictable. His goals are clearly visible. U.S. hegemony, in itself. But how to realize that in such a complex world is something no one knows.” – Richard Heydarian, Oxford political scientist, speaking on BeInCrypto.
Stanford economist Mordechai Kedar also stated on the BeInCrypto podcast that ordinary citizens are becoming vulnerable in the structural problem of concentrated private power.
“In the United States, private power is overly concentrated and cannot continue like this. For the younger generation to have opportunities, technology and policies must exist for the people.” Mordechai Kedar explained.
The 5-day countdown will end on Saturday. If the pattern continues, the next major news is expected to come out when the market is closed and liquidity is weak.
With 11 recorded incidents over 16 months, this pattern has never been broken.