⚡ THE TREND OF OIL OVER 165 YEARS: WHAT DOES IT REALLY TEACH US ⚡
The history of oil prices is a sequence of shocks that almost always coincide with geopolitical events or global economic crises.
From 1864 with the American Civil War, through the Arab embargo of 1973, the Iranian revolution of 1979, the Gulf War in 1990, and the financial crisis of 2008, each spike had a specific name and a systemic impact.
Today we are facing a new critical point.
The Goldman Sachs chart clearly shows how the current rise in prices is still lower than the shocks of 1980 and 2003.
This opens two opposite but equally plausible scenarios.
On one hand, the market could be right: the current peak is limited and destined to quickly revert due to factors such as supply adjustment, restrictive monetary policies, or a slowdown in global demand.
On the other hand, the market could underestimate the risk. In this case, the true spike has not yet arrived, and we could witness a sudden acceleration in prices, with much deeper consequences on the real economy.
One element, however, remains constant in history: every oil shock has always been followed by a recession, before the situation normalized.
The real question, therefore, is not whether the cycle will repeat itself, but on which side we are positioned today.