Bitcoin ($BTC) is already showing signs of weakness, down over 23% this year and trading below $70K. But here’s the twist — Bitwise says it might actually be safer than stocks right now.

While equities are just starting to feel the heat from inflation fears and geopolitical shocks, Bitcoin already priced in the tightening. That means it’s already "reset" and may have less room to fall compared to overvalued stocks.

Oil prices are spiking due to Middle East tensions, pushing inflation bets higher and crushing Fed rate cut hopes. The market now sees a 40% chance of no cuts at all this year. Bitcoin, being liquidity-sensitive, started reacting back in October — way before stocks.

Indicators like the Mayer Multiple show Bitcoin is in the lower percentiles of its historical range, meaning much of the downside is already baked in. Stocks, on the other hand, are still trading near cycle highs and just beginning to reprice.

In crypto, Bitcoin dominance is tightening the market — altcoins are moving in lockstep with BTC, making it the single factor driving the entire space.

Bottom line: Bitcoin’s early adjustment could mean less downside risk versus stocks, which are only now catching up to macro reality.

, ,