Bitcoin under macroeconomic pressure This Friday, the #Bitcoin❗ plunged below 67,000 dollars, reaching its lowest level in over two weeks and recording a drop of 8% compared to the 71,300 dollars from the previous day.
Bitcoin under macroeconomic pressure
This Friday, the #bitcoin $BTC plunged below 67,000 dollars, reaching its lowest level in over two weeks and recording a drop of 8% compared to the 71,300 dollars from the previous day. This rapid decline comes as global markets are shaken by persistent macroeconomic tensions, notably the rise in US interest rates and the surge in oil prices. The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds is now approaching 4.5%, an unmatched high since last July, while the price of WTI oil has surpassed 100 dollars due to supply disruptions from Russia caused by Ukraine.
The CoinDesk 20 index, which groups the main cryptocurrencies in the market, has fallen by 2.2% since midnight UTC, hitting an unprecedented floor since March 9. In this climate of uncertainty, even U.S. tech stocks are not spared: futures on the Nasdaq 100 are trading at nearly 23,760 points, a decrease of 10% compared to the peak recorded in January.
During the monthly expiration of options on Friday, 97% of call options on bitcoin at $68,610 became worthless.
Massive liquidations: who really pays the price?
The exacerbated volatility in the crypto market has led to massive liquidations on derivatives platforms. More than 210 million dollars in long positions on futures #bitcoin.” were wiped out during the drop to $65,530 on Friday. In just one hour, over 50 million dollars in long orders were liquidated, approximately 70% of which directly concerned BTC.
Traders who bet on a quick rise in bitcoin are thus paying a high price in the face of the prevailing nervousness.
This wave of liquidation did not spare the rest of the market: during the monthly expiration of options on Friday at an exercise price of $68,610, no less than 97% of call options (betting on a rise) became worthless. The delta skew – a key indicator measuring the premium between put options (down) and call options (up) – surged to 15%, signaling a strong preference for protection against further decline.
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Altcoins plunge in the wake of BTC
The correction is not limited to bitcoin: ether has fallen near $2,000 while several major altcoins have suffered notable losses. ETHFI has dropped by 6% since midnight and WLD, WIF, SEI, or FET have all given up between 3.6% and 4.7%. Even some newcomers like RLUSD do not escape the general volatility despite their initial success: RLUSD has just crossed the billion-dollar mark in market capitalization after a year of existence.
At the same time, stocks linked to the crypto ecosystem are also taking a hit: Circle Internet (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN), and MicroStrategy (MSTR) all showed a lower opening during the U.S. pre-market this Friday. The widespread decline highlights the increasing correlation between digital assets and traditional stock indices in an environment marked by risk aversion.
Towards a prolonged recovery cycle?
The central question for investors now remains how long it will take to erase this drawdown and return to historical highs. According to Ecoinometrics cited by cointelegraph.com, each additional 10% drop in the price of bitcoin extends the estimated time before returning to the previous peak by about 80 days. With a current drawdown estimated at nearly -48% since last October's peak at $126,000, it may take about four more months if the bottom is already reached around $60,000.
The Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI), a synthetic indicator used to detect historical market lows in crypto for six years, currently shows a value of 0.27 – significantly above the critical threshold observed during the worst recent downturns (0.15 in December 2018 or November 2022).
Expensive oil, synchronized bitcoin drop
The continued rise in energy prices fuels global inflation and further complicates the task of central banks. While Brent oil is also up more than 3%, this surge weighs heavily on all risky assets – including bitcoin, which is losing its defensive aura against major macroeconomic shocks. Persistent disruptions in Russian supply via Ukraine maintain this tension on black gold.
strained where bond volatility is exploding – with a MOVE index showing a spectacular increase (+18% in just twenty-four hours) – it remains unclear whether a durable rebound can quickly start for major cryptocurrencies.
Immediate points of attention
The market is watching the April 24 deadline, with a 53% probability that Bitcoin will remain below $66,000 by that date, as more than 210 million dollars of long positions have already been liquidated during the recent drop to $65,530. If the $66,000 threshold is not reclaimed by then, pressure on long positions could intensify immediately.