Brothers, this data may be the most important one in recent times—Bitcoin's March return rate is temporarily reported at -0.76%, which could mark a continuous decline for the 6th month.
Do you know what this means?
Historically, this situation has only occurred once: from August 2018 to January 2019, a cumulative decline of about 54.8% over 6 months. How desperate was the market at that time? Much worse than now, BTC dropped from 6000 to 3000, and everyone shouted 'zero'.
And then?
From February to June 2019, there was a consecutive increase for 5 months, with a cumulative increase of 208%! It rose from 3000 to 9000, leaving no bones for the bears.
History does not repeat itself simply, but the rhythm can be referenced.
Current market: a continuous decline for 6 months, emotional bottom, funding rates remain negative, 65% of people on Polymarket are bearish to 50,000—how similar this is to the scene at the end of 2018?
My judgment:
This position has a much greater probability of being a bottom zone rather than a continuation of the decline. Not because 'history will definitely repeat itself', but because when everyone is pessimistic, those who should sell have already sold.
In terms of operations, continue to accumulate cash near 66,000 in batches. Don't wait for the lowest point, because you won't be able to catch it.
Remember: after a continuous decline, it is often not about continuing to fall, but rather a revenge rebound.
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