The key to everything right now is actually the Strait of Hormuz. If this strait is not open, oil prices will continue to rise, U.S. stocks will continue to fall, and cryptocurrencies will also continue to drop. Conversely, if the situation eases and the strait is reopened, oil prices will drop, possibly even crashing, and U.S. stocks and Bitcoin will immediately rebound. The causal relationship is that simple.
No one can predict when the Strait of Hormuz will be open again, but one thing is certain: the Strait of Hormuz cannot remain blocked forever, and it is very likely that it will not be blocked for long, because the U.S. cannot afford it and is looking for a solution. The most direct approach is that if Iran continues to block the strait, ground war will have to be initiated, and it may be intense, with plans for a quick resolution.
From the exposed U.S. military's ground war rapid resolution plan, the U.S. aims to replicate the "42-day annihilation of Iraq" myth. The Pentagon is set to deploy a "sharp knife decapitation" tactic—without occupying territory or engaging in a prolonged war, directly targeting Iran's oil lifeline, Khark Island, achieving a "victory in weeks."
On the 29th local time, Iranian Navy Commander Shahram Irani stated that Iran is monitoring the position, movement, and requests made by the U.S. carrier group "Lincoln" in real time. Once the "Lincoln" carrier group enters Iran's range, Iran will launch missiles.
The ground war is on the verge of breaking out, but the outcome is actually not very suspenseful, as there is a gap in strength between the two sides. The U.S. is completely applying a dimensionality reduction strike against Iran. Once a direct ground conflict occurs, there can only be one result: Iran's defeat, and the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. Subsequently, crude oil will plummet, U.S. stocks will surge, and cryptocurrencies will also soar; it is just a matter of time. This prediction does not require any professional level of expertise; anyone with a bit of worldly knowledge can understand it.
From the market trends in the past two days, despite the rampant news of ground war and the situation being tense to the breaking point, the trend of BTC has not gone out of control. It has not been affected by the news to continue its sharp decline; rather, it shows signs of stabilizing at the bottom, even slightly rising. If on Monday, under the pressure of various negotiations and the U.S. stick, Iran's attitude shows signs of softening, there will definitely be a remarkable rebound. $BNB
