Tonight at 3 AM, all eyes in the market will be on Powell.

The core of this meeting is not whether to "lower interest rates" but rather the combination of "interest rate cuts + tone of the speech".

A 25bp rate cut has basically become a foregone conclusion; the key lies in the fact that the Federal Reserve will likely adopt a "hawkish rate cut"—loosening monetary policy in action while maintaining a tough stance in speech, superficially releasing goodwill but actually cooling the market to avoid excessive excitement.

There are clear divisions within the Federal Reserve, with one side worried about a slowdown in employment, advocating for continuous rate cuts to support the economy; the other side is wary of persistent inflation, insisting on maintaining a cautious policy. This division will likely be reflected in the dot plot, increasing uncertainty regarding future rate cuts.

The logic in the crypto circle is quite clear: ① Short-term high risk; a rate cut doesn't necessarily represent good news. If Powell hints at slowing the pace of rate cuts, the market may experience significant volatility, and high-leverage players must strictly control risk; ② Mid-term focus on the balance sheet, signals of slowing or expanding the balance sheet are the real good news for liquidity; ③ The overall direction is bullish despite fluctuations; there may be a washout tonight, but structural trends will not be interrupted by a single meeting.

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