Update $BTC
With Bitcoin currently around $66,000, the dominant point of discussion this morning remains the risk of a limited land invasion of Iran by the United States, particularly along the coasts bordering the Strait of Hormuz.
Reports indicate that the Pentagon is actively preparing ground operations (special forces raids, possible seizure of Kharg Island - the strategic Iranian oil hub).
Thousands of additional Marines and soldiers are already deployed in the region (up to 17,000 in total). Trump and his team officially repeat "no ground troops for now" and "all options remain on the table," but media outlets such as Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ… confirm that these scenarios are indeed on the table to exert maximum pressure on Tehran. Israel is pushing in this direction.
The concrete risks that are shaking the market include:
High human losses and the risk of a "quagmire" as was the case in Iraq.
The risk of massive regional escalation while the global market advocates for de-escalation. Iran could mine the Gulf, close the Strait of Hormuz, and further activate its proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis).
The explosion of oil prices which would further harm the allies of the United States.
Result: All these events only heighten investor caution, prompting them to reduce their exposure to risky or more risky assets (a category in which Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are currently classified).
In short, this morning it is the shadow of a possible land invasion that dominates the entire market. Ultra-volatile, but the underlying (long-term) remains bullish for Bitcoin.
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